Action Insight Weekly Report 4-30-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Weekly Report	Markets Snapshot
Dollar Selloff Accelerated after FOMC, More Downside to Come Dollar's down trend accelerated again last week after Fed Chairman Bernanke expressed that there is no time frame for the central bank to exit from policy stimulus. Dollar index breached 73 level to new three year low at 72.83 and is set to extend towards record low of 70.70. Almost everything else climbed against dollar. Gold soared to new record high near to 1570. Stocks extended recent up trend with DOW closed strongly at 12810. Among major currencies, Swissy Franc and Aussie were the biggest winner as the Swissy was boosted by hawkish comments from SNB. Aussie rode on strong CPI reading as well as commodities. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Weekly Outlook USD/CHF's down trend continued last week and dropped to new record low of 0.8625. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall should now be seen to 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486 next. On the upside, break of 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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Suggested Readings

The Week in Review and Preview The USD Swoons; More Weakness is Likely Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary The Weekly Bottom Line Weekly Focus: US Public Finances in Focus 3 Top Themes This Week: Bernanke Green Lights "Risk On", AUD at Record Highs, UK & US GDP Bernanke Batters the Dollar MPC and ECB Expected on Hold in May

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-29-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Remains Weak Despite Solid Personal Income and Spending, Swissy Up on SNB Comments, Euro Up on CPI Dollar edged lower in early US session but managed to pare some losses after upside surprise in personal income and spending report. Personal income rose 0.5% in March while spending rose 0.6%, both were above expectation. COre PCE deflator rose 0.1% mom, 0.9% yoy, inline with consensus. Headline PCE, though, rose less than expected by 1.8% yoy. Employment costs index rose 0.6% qoq in Q1. But after all, the greenback is still facing strong pressure as Swissy Franc, Australian dollar and gold make record high. Canadian dollar is stuck in range as GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.2% mom in February. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8693; (P) 0.8726; (R1) 0.8763; More. USD/CHF's down trend resumes by taking out 0.8670 today and reaches as low as 0.8644 so far in early US session. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. Next. On the upside, above 0.8832 resistance is needed to signal short term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish even in case of recovery. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Forex Brokers

Special Reports

RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath Remains As widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Read more... Fed Signals No Plan To Tighten The April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	The Traders Expo provides a chance to take a productive step back from the trading screen and look at the overall markets from a broader perspective. Join your fellow traders at The Traders Expo Dallas and experience it for yourself.
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 464M 200M 194M 193M 08:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar 2.30% 2.20% 2.00% 2.10% 09:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 2.80% 2.70% 2.60% 2.70% 09:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr -11.6 -11.4 -11.4 -11 09:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 106.2 107 107.3 09:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr 5.8 6.6 6.6 7 09:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Apr 10.4 10.5 10.8 11 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 9.90% 9.90% 9.90% 09:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Apr 2.29 2.2 2.24 2.25 12:30 USD Personal Income Mar 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.40% 12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.60% 0.50% 0.70% 0.90% 12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.10% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Mar 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% 12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar 1.80% 1.90% 1.60% 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.60% 0.50% 0.40% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb -0.20% 0.00% 0.50% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 68.5 70.6 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 70 69.6
Forex Trade Ideas
No update on 29 April, next update on Monday 2 May Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Dollar Ends April on Its Back EUR CPI Climbs Higher in April, but Higher Inflation Dents German Consumer Spending Euro-area Inflation Gives Single Currency a Boost CHF Surges On SNB Hawkish Comments Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day EUR/CHF Repeating A Double Top At The 1.2960 Resistance EUR/USD Breaks Above Flag Pattern, 1.4940 And 1.4990 Are Swing Projections Growth Of Bearish Potential As A Factor For EUR/USD Correction

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Action Insight Daily Report 4-29-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Dollar Soft in Tight Range, Remains Vulnerable Dollar remains soft in tight range against other major currencies. The post-FOMC selloff stalled yesterday but the greenback is still vulnerable to deeper decline. Overall market outlook is not favoring a rebound in the greenback yet. Risk appetite is still firm with DOW extending recent rally to close at 12763 overnight and is still in progress to 13000 level. Gold made another record high at 1538.8 yesterday and is heading towards 1600 psychological level. Though, crude oil continues to struggle around 113 level and thus, helps keep USD/CAD above recent low of 0.9453. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/GBP Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8851; (P) 0.8887; (R1) 0.8928; More WIth 0.8845 minor support intact, intraday bias in EUR/GBP remains mildly on the upside for further rally. Break of 0.8922 will confirm resumption of recent rally and should target 100% projection of 0.8067 to 0.8940 from 0.8284 at 0.9157 next. On the downside, below 0.8845 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for another fall to extend the consolidation from 0.8922. But we'll stay bullish as long as 0.8713 support holds and expect rise from 0.8284 to resume sooner or later. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Forex Brokers

Special Reports

RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath Remains As widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Read more... Fed Signals No Plan To Tighten The April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	The Traders Expo provides a chance to take a productive step back from the trading screen and look at the overall markets from a broader perspective. Join your fellow traders at The Traders Expo Dallas and experience it for yourself.
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Trade Balance (NZD) Mar 464M 200M 194M 193M 8:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Mar 2.20% 2.00% 9:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Estimate Y/Y Apr 2.70% 2.60% 9:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Apr -11.4 -11.4 9:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Apr 107 107.3 9:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Apr 6.6 6.6 9:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Apr 10.5 10.8 9:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate Mar 9.90% 9.90% 9:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Apr 2.2 2.24 12:30 USD Personal Income Mar 0.40% 0.30% 12:30 USD Personal Spending Mar 0.50% 0.70% 12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Mar 0.10% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Mar 0.90% 0.90% 12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Mar 1.90% 1.60% 12:30 USD Employment Cost Index Q/Q Q1 0.50% 0.40% 12:30 CAD GDP M/M Feb 0.00% 0.50% 13:45 USD Chicago PMI Apr 68.5 70.6 13:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Apr F 70 69.6
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4785 Despite intra-day retreat to 1.4776, as the single currency has rebounded after finding renewed buying interest there as suggested, retaining our bullishness for recent upmove to resume after consolidation, a break of intra-day resistance at 1.4882 would confirm this view and extend gain towards 1.4900/05 (1.236 times projection of 1.4494-1.4715 measuring from 1.4630) Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Dollar Remains Under Pressure After Disappointing Jobs Data Gold Pushing Daily Record Highs USD Halts Its Rapid Decline What Does Ugly US Data Mean for the USD? Technical Highlights Daily Technical Analysis Forex Technical Update The Daily Forecaster: USDCAD Foreign Exchange Market Commentary Daily Forex Update: USD/HKD

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-28-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovered But Lost Steam after GDP and Job Data Dollar attempts a recovery earlier today but losses momentum after GDP and employment data. Advanced GDP report showed 1.8% annualized expansion in Q1, basically inline with expectation. GDP price index rose 1.9% qoq, lower than expectation of 2.4% The slowdown from prior quarter's 3.1% growth was expected and Bernanke has already said yesterday's that it's viewed by FOMC as "transitory". A bigger surprise today was the 25k jump in initial jobless claims in the week ended April 23 to 429k, hitting the highest level in three months and is much higher than expectation of 390k. It's also the third consecutive week that initial claims stayed above 400k level. Nevertheless, continuing claims dropped by 68k in the week ended April 16 to 3.64m, the lowest number since September 2008. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8665; (P) 0.8749; (R1) 0.8830; More. USD/CHF continues to stay in tight range above 0.8670 temporary low and intraday bias remains neutral for more consolidations. But even in case of recovery, upside should be limited by 0.8895 support turned resistance and bring fall resumption. Break of 0.8670 will target 100% projection of 0.9774 to 0.8921 from 0.9339 at 0.8486. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Forex Brokers

Special Reports

RBNZ Leaves OCR At 2.5%, Staying Dovish As Earthquake Aftermath Remains As widely expected, the RBNZ left the OCR unchanged at 2.5%. We mentioned after the previous meeting (when the central bank lowered the policy rate by -50 bps) that the OCR would stay at current level for the rest of the year and this meeting reinforced our view. At the accompanying statement, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'higher oil prices and the elevated level of the New Zealand dollar are both unwelcome' as they will have 'some dampening effect on economic activity'. Read more... Fed Signals No Plan To Tighten The April statement, inaugural press briefing and the downwardly revised growth outlook suggested that the Fed will not begin tightening this year. Indeed, policymakers signaled that the timing is uncertain and is dependent on evolution of the economy. Concerning QE2, the Fed said that it will 'complete purchases of $600B of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the current quarter'. At the press briefing, Chairman Ben Bernanke stated that the central bank is 'going to continue to reinvest maturing securities, both Treasury and MBS' so that securities holdings 'will remain approximately constant'. The Fed also maintained the reference that 'exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate for an extended period'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	The Traders Expo provides a chance to take a productive step back from the trading screen and look at the overall markets from a broader perspective. Join your fellow traders at The Traders Expo Dallas and experience it for yourself.
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 21:00 NZD RBNZ Rate Decision 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 23:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Apr -31 -27 -28 23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Apr 45.7 46.4 23:30 JPY Household Spending Y/Y Mar -8.50% -7.00% -0.20% 23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Core Y/Y Apr 0.20% 0.20% -0.30% 23:30 JPY National CPI Core Y/Y Mar -0.10% -0.20% -0.30% 23:30 JPY Unemployment Rate Mar 4.60% 4.80% 4.60% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Mar P -15.30% -10.60% 1.80% 23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Mar P -12.90% -8.50% 2.90% 04:00 JPY BOJ Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 05:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Mar -2.40% -2.00% 10.10% 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Apr -37K -37K -55K 07:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Apr 7.10% 7.00% 7.10% 12:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q1 A 1.80% 1.80% 3.10% 12:30 USD GDP Price Index Q1 A 1.90% 2.40% 0.40% 12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 429K 395K 403K 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Mar 1.50% 2.10% 14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 38B 47B
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Hold long entered at 1.4785 As the single currency has continued to move lower after retreating from intra-day high of 1.4882, further consolidation would take place, however, as long as the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.4757) holds, bullishness remains for upmove to resume later. Above said resistance would extend further gain to 1.4900/05 (1.236 times projection of 1.4494-1.4715 measuring from 1.4630) but 1.4988 (1.618 times projection) would limit upside Read more... Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 1.0800 The Australian dollar has surged again on broad-based weakness in the greenback, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and further gain towrads 1.0990/00 would be seen, however, reckon 1.1060 (61.8% projection of 0.8066-1.0257 measuring from 0.9706) would limit this wave v of 5 and bring correction later. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Dealers Take Chainsaw to Greenback Staged Theatre from the Fed Chair London Session: The Dollar Slide Continues Forex - And Endless Liquidity For All Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day Ones To Watch: AUDNZD And Gold Eur/Chf Ready For A Fall!? EUR/USD Bullish Breakout With Potential Of Further Growth

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