Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-4-10

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Boosted by ADP Report and Bank Earnings Risk appetite is given a lift in early US session following better than ADP report. The report showed 42k expansion in the private job market in July versus consensus of 36k. That was the sixth consecutive monthly gain in a row even though there's no sign of acceleration in the recovery. In additional, UK's largest mortgage lender LLoyds Banking Group reported bigger than expected profits of GBP 1.6b, which boosts hope of recovery in European banking sector. Major european indices rebound strongly from intraday low while US stocks futures also point to higher opening. Aussie takes the lead in currency market by breaking through yesterday's high of 0.9148 against dollar while some strength is seen in Canadian dollar too. Yen, on the other hand, pare some of this week's gain. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9082; (P) 0.9115; (R1) 0.9161; More AUD/USD rises strongly in early US session and the break of 0.91480 indicates the recent rally is still in progress. Intraday bias is back to the upside. Whole rise from 0.8066 is expected to continue towards 0.9380/9404 resistance zone. Nevertheless, we'd expect upside to be limited there to bring another fall to continue the medium term consolidation. On the downside, break of 0.9067 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. Though, break of 0.8904 support is still needed to be the first sign of topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE Despite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Attend The Futures & Forex Expo Las Vegas, September 23-25, at Caesars Palace, where industry experts will help Forex & Futures traders make profitable trading decisions. Register FREE
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:01 GBP BRC July Shop Price Index 1.50% -- 1.50% 01:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun 3.54B 1.81B 1.65B 1.83B 01:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q2 3.10% 2.20% 4.80% 07:55 EUR German PMI Services Jul F 56.5 57.3 57.3 08:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jul F 55.8 56 56 08:30 GBP PMI Services Jul 53.1 54.6 54.4 09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.00% 0.00% 0.20% 0.40% 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul -57.20% -- -47.10% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 42K 36K 13K 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Jul 53.3 53.8 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M 7.3M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0500 Despite intra-day retreat from 1.0434 to 1.0381, as the greenback has rebounded after the release of ADP job data, suggesting further consolidation above 1.0348 temporary low would be seen and upside risk has increased for corrective rise to 1.0460 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0640 to 1.0348) and then to resistance at 1.0477, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.0490-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) , bring another decline later. Read more... Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5805 Although the British pound has rebounded after intra-day retreat to 1.5892, above resistance at 1.5968 is needed to confirm recent upmove has once again resumed and extend gain towards psychological resistance at 1.6000 but reckon 1.6050 would hold and risk from there is seen for a correction later. Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Little Dollar Movement as Markets Await Employment Trio Markets Softer On Poor Data, Fed - Yen Advances 'Dollar Carry' Potentially Resurrected Technical Highlights GBP/JPY Rallies after Retracement GBPUSD - Biased To The Upside But Hesitating FX Thoughts for the Day

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Action Insight Daily Report 8-4-10

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Yen Extends Rally as JGB Fell Below 1% for First Time in Seven Years Japanese yen climbs further against dollar with USD/JPY dives to as low as 85.31 while yen also recovers broadly. Concern on US and global recovery triggered some safe-haven buying in bonds. Yield on US two year notes continue to hover around record low. Meanwhile, yield on 10 year Japanese Government bonds also dropped below 1% for the first time in seven years. Dollar, on the other hand, remains broadly pressured on speculation that Fed will restart the quantitative easing campaign next week. Dollar index is still on the way to 80. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 85.42; (P) 86.04; (R1) 86.41; More. USD/JPY drops to as low as 85.31 so far today and intraday bias remains on the downside for retesting 84.81 low next. Strong support could be seen there initially on oversold conditions. On the upside, above 86.03 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But after all, break of 88.11 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE Despite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Attend The Futures & Forex Expo Las Vegas, September 23-25, at Caesars Palace, where industry experts will help Forex & Futures traders make profitable trading decisions. Register FREE
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:01 GBP BRC July Shop Price Index 1.50% -- 1.50% 1:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jun 3.54B 1.81B 1.65B 1.83B 1:30 AUD House Price Index Q/Q Q2 3.10% 2.20% 4.80% 7:55 EUR German PMI Services Jul F 57.3? 57.3? 8:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Jul F 56 56 8:30 GBP PMI Services Jul 54.6 54.4 9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.00% 0.20% 11:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Jul -- -47.10% 12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Jul 36K 13K 14:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacutring Composite Jul 53.3 53.8 14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.9M 7.3M
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3155 Despite intra-day rise to 1.3262, as the single currency has eased from there, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3205 would bring retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3163) but renewed buying interest should emerge above intra-day support at 1.3146 and bring another upmove to 1.3275 (61.8% projection of 1.2151-1.3029 measuring from 1.2732) Read more... Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5865 Although the British pound has edged higher to 1.5968, as price has eased after faltering below indicated level at 1.5970/75 - 1.618 times projection of 1.4949 to 1.5473 measuring from 1.5125, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5885) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around intra-day support at 1.5862 and bring another rally. Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Markets Brace Themselves For ADP Employment Report Today! Watch Out For Macro, Both ADP Employment And ISM Today The USD Continues Its Slide Amid Heightened Chatter About Further QE Measures From The Fed Next Week EURIBOR, Euro & USD Index USD/JPY Edging Towards Decade Low Technical Highlights FX Technical Analysis Daily Technical Outlook Foreign Exchange Market Commentary Daily Technical Analysis The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD The Daily Wave Analysis

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-3-10

Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Breaks 86 Again as Treasury Yield Dives USD/JPY dives through 86 level again today following fall in yield on two-year notes to record low of 0.5301 on speculation that Fed will restart the quantitative easing program next week. Meanwhile, dollar remains under tremendous pressure against Euro and Sterling, where we see EUR/USD breaches 1.32 while GBP/USD reaches 1.596. Nevertheless, strength in commodity currencies is relatively limited with Aussie and Loonie both held below yesterday's low. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 86.25; (P) 86.56; (R1) 86.81; More. USD/JPY's break of 85.98 indicates that recent fall has resumed and put intraday bias back to the downside. As discussed before, current decline from 94.97 is expected to extend further to retest 84.81 low next. On the upside, above 86.87 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. But after all, break of 88.11 resistance is still needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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RBA Left OCR Unchanged At 4.5%, Taking A Wait-And-See Stance The RBA left the OCR unchanged at 4.5% for the 3rd consecutive month. Few surprises were seen in the accompanying statement. The overall tone was similar to that of July while the economic outlook was also unchanged. Policymakers acknowledged that global economic expansion, while faster than trend, has been uneven. There are signs that Chinese growth is 'moderating to a more sustainable rate as policies are now less accommodating'. Moreover, positive stress test results also diminished concerns over European banking systems and 'the caution evident in financial markets in the past few months has abated of late'. In July, the central bank explicitly mentioned that 'caution in financial markets has been evident in the past couple of months, driven principally by concerns about European sovereigns and banks but also by some uncertainty about the pace of future global growth'. Read more... Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE Despite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Attend The Futures & Forex Expo Las Vegas, September 23-25, at Caesars Palace, where industry experts will help Forex & Futures traders make profitable trading decisions. Register FREE
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 22:45 NZD Labor Cost Index Q/Q Q2 0.40% 0.40% 0.30% 23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jul 6.10% 3.70% 3.60% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jun -3.30% 2.10% -6.60% 01:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Jun 0.20% 0.40% 0.20% 04:30 AUD RBA Rate Decision 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 07:15 CHF CPI M/M Jul -0.70% -0.50% -0.40% 07:15 CHF CPI Y/Y Jul 0.40% 0.70% 0.50% 08:30 GBP PMI Construction Jul 54.1 58.2 58.4 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jun 0.30% 0.40% 0.30% 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jun 3.00% 3.10% 3.10% 12:30 USD Personal Income Jun 0.00% 0.30% 0.40% 12:30 USD Personal Spending Jun 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Jun 1.40% 1.30% 1.90% 12:30 USD PCE Core M/M Jun 0.00% 0.20% 0.20% 12:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Jun 1.40% 1.30% 1.30% 14:00 USD Factory Orders Jun 0.00% -1.40% 14:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Jun 0.90% -30.00%
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas
Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Buy at 0.9025 or Sell at 0.9220 As the Australian dollar has remained firm, suggesting recent upmove is still in progress and may extend to 0.9185/90 (100% projection of 0.8315 to 0.8871 measuring from 0.8633 and 1.618 times projection of 0.8908-0.9044 measuring from 0.8965), however, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 0.9220/30 and bring retreat later. Read more...
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3155 Despite intra-day rise to 1.3262, as the single currency has eased from there, suggesting minor consolidation would take place and below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.3205 would bring retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3163) but renewed buying interest should emerge above intra-day support at 1.3146 and bring another upmove to 1.3275 (61.8% projection of 1.2151-1.3029 measuring from 1.2732) Read more... Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5865 Although the British pound has edged higher to 1.5968, as price has eased after faltering below indicated level at 1.5970/75 - 1.618 times projection of 1.4949 to 1.5473 measuring from 1.5125, suggesting minor consolidation would be seen and pullback to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5885) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around intra-day support at 1.5862 and bring another rally. Read more...
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Specter of Fed Bond Purchases Fuels Dollar Sales Sterling Over-Bought and Vulnerable Improved Risk-Appetite Drives Markets USD Punished For Lagging Economic Data & Markets Growing Risk Appetite RBA Keeps Rate Unchanged At 4.50% Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day GBPUSD - Targeting The 1.6000 Level EURUSD - Poised To Head Further Higher

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