Friday, August 6, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 8-6-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar in Range ahead of Non-Farm Payroll

Dollar is staying in tight range as traders await July's Non-Farm Payroll report today. The headline number is expected to show -75k contraction in the job market while private jobs are expected to grow by 80k. Nevertheless, the range of expectation is wide from 20k to 150k and the main focus would be on whether growth is better or worse than prior month's data, 83k before revision. Unemployment rate is expected to edge higher to 9.6%. Better than expected economic data released this week cooled speculations on more fed easing and thus gave dollar a breath in recent decline. However, the greenback is vulnerable to another fall against yen and european majors in case of downside surprise today.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 85.52; (P) 85.99; (R1) 86.26; More.

Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral as consolidations from 85.31 continues. Another rise might be seen but after all, 88.11 resistance is needed to indicate bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish and we'd expect after fall. Below 85.31 will target a retest on 84.81 low next.

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ECB Delivered Upbeat Economic Outlook

While ECB maintained the main refinancing rate at 1%, the upbeat economic outlook was encouraging. President Trichet said in the statement that there's 'strengthening in economic activity in the second quarter of 2010' while data for the third quarter are 'better than expected'. The central bank continued to view the current key ECB interest rates remain 'appropriate' and 'the risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced in an environment of uncertainty'.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jul -- 0.70%
1:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Monetary Policy Statement -- --
5:00 JPY Leading Index Jun P 98.90% 98.90% 98.60% 98.60%
5:45 CHF Unemployment Rate Jul 3.80% 3.90% 3.90%
8:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Jul -0.40% -0.20%
8:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Jul 11.40% 10.70%
8:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Jul 0.10% -0.30%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Jul 4.90% 5.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Jul 4.50% 4.80%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.30% 0.70%
8:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Jun 1.90% 2.60%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Jun 0.50% 0.30%
8:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Jun 4.10% 4.30%
10:00 EUR German Industrial Production M/M Jun 0.90% 2.60%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Jul 10.3K 93.2K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Jul 7.90% 7.90%
12:30 USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls Jul -75K -125K
12:30 USD Unemployment Rate Jul 9.60% 9.50%
14:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jul 56.3 58.9
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5855

Although the British pound retreated quite sharply from 1.5925 to 1.5824, as the British pound has rebounded after holding above indicated support at 1.5820, retaining our bullishness and break of said resistance at 1.5925 would signal the correction from 1.5968 has ended at 1.5820 and bring resumption of upmove for a retest of this level later.

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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Thursday, August 5, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 8-5-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Markets Stay in Range, ECB and BoE on Hold

Markets continue to stay in familiar range after ECB and BoE left rates unchanged while US jobless came miss expectations. ECB left rates unchanged at 1% for the 16th consecutive month as widely expected. President Trichet said in the press conference that current raters are "appropriate" and expects "price developments to remain moderate". Economic data in Q3 were so far "better than expected" but Trichet warned again that recovery will be "moderate and uneven". After all, there is no change in markets' expectation that ECB is in no rush to remove policy accommodation any time soon.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5838; (P) 1.5900; (R1) 1.5945; More.

GBP/USD is still staying in consolidation below 1.5967 for the moment. Deeper retreat could be seen to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5704) and below. But still, recent rally should still be in progress as long as 1.5546 cluster support holds (which is close to 50% retracement of 1.5123 to 1.5967 and 23.6% retracement from 1.4230 to 1.5967). Sustained trading above 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968 will pave the way to retest 1.7043 resistance next.

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Economic Indicators Update

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 -0.30% 0.50% 1.00%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 6.80% 6.20% 6.00%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 3.20% 1.50% -0.50% -0.10%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claim 479K 456K 457K
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 6.50% 0.60% -10.80%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B 28B
Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9220

Although aussie has eased after rising to 0.9184 yesterday, as long as 0.9070 holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain to 0.9185/90 (100% projection of 0.8315 to 0.8871 measuring from 0.8633 and 1.618 times projection of 0.8908-0.9044 measuring from 0.8965), however, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 0.9220/30 and reckon 0.9290/00 would hold, bring retreat later.

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Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5855

Cable's intra-day rebound from 1.5820 suggests the correction from 1.5968 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen, however, break of said resistance at 1.5968 is needed to confirm upmove has resumed and extend gain to psychological resistance at 1.6000, possibly towards 1.6050.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.70

The greenback has remained sidelined in line with our expectation and further consolidation would take place, although test of the Kijun-Sen (now at 85.92) is likely, the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 85.57) should contain downside and bring another leg of corrective upmove later.

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Action Insight Daily Report 8-5-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: EUR and GBP Retreats Further ahead of ECB and BoE, NZD Tumbles on Poor Job Data

Euro and Sterling continue to retreat against dollar ahead of ECB and BoE rate decision. Dollar enjoyed a strong rebound overnight as speculations on more quantitative easing from Fed were cooled by solid economic data. More recovery would likely be seen in the greenback against European majors but momentum could remain mild as traders are cautious ahead of Friday's NFP. Meanwhile, Aussie is dragged down by weakness in Kiwi after a much poorer than expected employment report.

Full Report Here...


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nzdusdpiv.png

Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5838; (P) 1.5900; (R1) 1.5945; More.

The break of 1.5860 minor support suggests that a temporary top is in place at 1.5967 after just missing 61.8% retracement of 1.7043 to 1.4230 at 1.5968. Intraday bias is now mildly on the downside for retreat towards 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.5689). Nevertheless, recent rally should still be in progress as long as 1.5546 cluster support holds (which is close to 50% retracement of 1.5123 to 1.5967 and 23.6% retracement from 1.4230 to 1.5967). Sustained trading above 1.5968 will pave the way to retest 1.7043 resistance next.

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Central Bank Previews: RBA, ECB, BOE

Despite the positive stress test result and recent stronger-than-expected economic data the ECB should maintain its monetary stance and keep the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1%. President Trichet should reiterate in the meeting statement that the current key ECB interest rates are 'appropriate' and the 'risks to the economic outlook are broadly balanced, in an environment of high uncertainty'.

Read more...

Economic Indicators Update

ME Money Summit

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
22:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q2 -0.30% 0.50% 1.00%
22:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q2 6.80% 6.20% 6.00%
10:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Jun 1.50% -0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
11:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
11:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
12:30 USD Initial Jobless Claim 456K 457K
12:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Jun 0.60% -10.80%
14:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 32B 28B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0450

Yesterday's rally signals a temporary low has been formed earlier at 1.0348 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 1.0555, break there would bring a stronger retracement of recent decline towards 1.0590/00, however, reckon resistance at 1.0640 would hold from here and further choppy consolidation would take place ahead of Friday's release of U.S. data.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 85.70

Although dollar has retreated after intra-day rise to 86.46, as yesterday's strong rebound from 85.32 suggests a temporary low has been formed, reckon the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 85.77) would contain weakness and consolidation with upside bias is seen for retracement of recent decline to 86.72 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 88.12 to 85.32), however, reckon resistance at 86.89-99 would limit upside and price should falter below 87.05 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).

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Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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Action Forex Company Limited | Room 1707, 17/F | Treasure Center | 42 Hung To Road | Kwun Tong | Kowloon | 852 | Hong Kong