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Daily Report: Dollar Rebounds as Middle East Drives Risk Aversion, Gold at Record HighRisk aversion is back driving the markets on news of clashes between opposition supporters and Iran's security forces in Tehran. Gold jumps to new record high of 1435.6 on safe haven buying while WTI crude oil is back above 100 level. Fear of spreadover of unrest in Middle East also trigger selling in stocks where Asian equities are broadly lower and deep in red following -1.58% fall in DOW overnight. Dollar reacts positively this time and recovers against other major currencies, with support from yesterday's strong manufacturing data and Bernanke's comments. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0104; (P) 1.0153; (R1) 1.0181; More AUD/USD's break of 1.0119 minor support suggests that a temporary top is formed at 1.0200 after failing to sustain above 1.0199 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral again. The overall outlook in AUD/USD remains unchanged. As noted before, while upside momentum is clearly seen diminishing with bearish divergence condition in daily MACD, AUD/USD is still drawing strong support from 55 days EMA. Recent up trend is still in favor to continue further. Break of 1.0200 again will target another high above 1.0254. On the downside, break of 0.9943 support is needed to be the first signal of topping. Otherwise, we won't turn bearish yet. |
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BOC Sees Faster Growth, CAD Retreats on Profit-TakingThe Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish tone in March than previously despite no change in the policy rate. Policymakers stated the recovery in Canada has progressed 'slightly faster than expected' and any rate hike will be carefully considered. The Canadian dollar retreated after surging to a 3-year high against the dollar on profit-taking. RBA On Hold, Sees Only Moderate Inflationary PressureAs widely expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation remained contained. The accompanying statement delivered a neutral tone as policymakers see balanced risks to growth and inflation outlook. For the first time in the current tightening cycle, the RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy is 'mildly restrictive'. Yet it remained 'appropriate in view of the general macroeconomic outlook'. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6200As the British pound has retreated after rising to 1.6330 yesterday, retaining our view that consolidation below this level would take place and although mild downside bias remains for retracement of recent upmove to 1.6215 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6030 to 1.6330) but renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.6200 and bring another upmove later. Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 81.90Despite yesterday's rebound to 82.24, as the greenback retreated after meeting offers there, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 81.90 and recent low at 81.62 needs to hold to retain near term bullishness for retracement of recent decline. A break of said resistance at 82.24 would bring correction to 82.52-59 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Forex in Brief
