Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-3-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Euro Soars on "Vigilant" Trichet, ECB Raised Inflation Projections Euro soars and is heading towards 1.4 psychological level against dollar after Trichet more than satisfies the market by delivering some hawkish messages. Most importantly, the magical word "vigilance" is mentioned in today's press conference and the word has been used to signal rate hike in the following meetings in the past. Trichet said that "strong vigilance is warranted with a view to containing upside risks to price stability." While April hike is certainly not a done deal, the word does suggest that ECB is moving very close to tightening cycle. ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% today and also updated staff projections. GDP is seen in range of 1.3-2.1% in 2011 and 0.8-2.8% in 2012. HICP inflation is seen to be 2.0-2.6% in 2011 and 1-2.4% in 2012. The inflation projection has shifted upwards "due to the considerable rise in energy and food prices". Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3775; (P) 1.3832 (R1) 1.3922; More. EUR/USD's rally extends further to as high as 1.3972 in early US session and intraday bias remains on the upside for 61.8% projection of 1.2873 to 1.3860 from 1.3427 at 1.4037. Break there will extend the whole rise from 1.2873 towards 1.4281 key resistance next. On the downside, below 1.3832 minor support will dampen this view and turn bias back to the downside. Nevertheless, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3427 support holds. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

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Economic Indicators Update	Learn Expert Strategies for Pulling Profits from the Markets. The London Traders Expo on April 8-9, 2011 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. Visit The London Traders Expo online to register FREE.
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q4 3.80% 5.90% 5.00% 00:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jan -15.90% -3.10% 8.70% 10.00% 00:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jan 1.88B 1.56B 1.98B 2.02B 08:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan -2.60% 1.70% -0.40% -0.80% 08:55 EUR German PMI Services Feb F 58.6 59.5 59.5 09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Feb F 56.8 57.2 57.2 09:30 GBP PMI Services Feb 52.6 54 54.5 10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 P 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.40% 0.30% -0.60% -0.40% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 0.70% 0.00% -0.80% -0.40% 12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- -- 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 368K 390K 391K 13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 F -0.60% -0.60% -0.60% 13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q4 F 2.60% 2.60% 2.60% 15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Feb 59.7 59.4 15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -89B -81B
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9250 Dollar's intra-day rebound to 0.9274 suggests caution on our short position entered at 0.9250 and indicated minor resistance at 0.9282/85 needs to hold to retain bearishness for recent decline to resume after consolidation and a break of yesterday's low at 0.9202 would extend further weakness to indicated downside target at 0.9182 (100% projection of 0.9739-0.9415 measuring from 0.9506) and possibly 0.9150 Read more... Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9890 As the greenback has remained sidelined after falling to 0.9684 earlier this week, suggesting further consolidation above this level would take place and above yesterday's high at 0.9777 would bring retracement to 0.9830/40 but renewed selling interest should emerge below 0.9902 and bring another decline later. A break of said support at 0.9684 would signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9650 Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Caution ahead of ECB Leaves Dollar Mixed Will ECB Pres Trichet Satisfy the Markets? ECB Meeting in the Spotlight The Stage is Set for the ECB ECB Dilemma, Euro Peripherals Vs. Inflation Technical Highlights FX Thoughts for the Day EURJPY: Short Term Risk Points Higher AUDUSD - Biased To The Upside Long-Term EUR/USD 2011 High Renewal

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Action Insight Daily Report 3-3-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Daily Report: Euro Firm ahead of ECB, Dollar Vulnerable to Downside Euro remains firm against dollar ahead of the highly anticipated ECB meeting. The common currency also recovers against swissy as markets are expecting ECB Trichet to give a more hawkish tone on inflation in the post meeting conference. Dollar is generally soft as crude oil jumped back above 100 level overnight but downside is so far limited as oil struggles to take out recent high of 103.41. Also, gold retreats mildly after hitting new record high of 1441. Some consolidations would be seen ahead of ECB press conference today but the greenback is vulnerable to EUR/USD triggered broad based selloff. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2766; (P) 1.2794; (R1) 1.2833; More EUR/CHF's recovery suggests that consolidations from 1.2704 is still in progress and intraday is turned neutral again. More sideway trading would be seen first. But we'd still expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 1.3203 to 1.2704 at 1.2895 to limit upside and finally bring fall resumption. Break of 1.2704 will confirm that whole decline from 1.3203 has resumed and should target a test on 1.2401 low first. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Forex Brokers

Special Reports

ECB Should Leave Rates Unchanged, Extend LTRO But Sound More Upbeat The ECB will likely leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in March, although delivering a more hawkish tone in the press conference and the accompanying statement. ECB's staff projections on growth and inflation will also be revised up. Concerning the non-standard liquidity measures, the central bank will likely extend the full-allotment procedure for all open market operations for another 3 months but rates may vary. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Learn Expert Strategies for Pulling Profits from the Markets. The London Traders Expo on April 8-9, 2011 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. Visit The London Traders Expo online to register FREE.
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Capital Spending Q4 3.80% 5.90% 5.00% 0:30 AUD Building Approvals M/M Jan -15.90% -3.10% 8.70% 10.00% 0:30 AUD Trade Balance (AUD) Jan 1.88B 1.56B 1.98B 2.02B 8:15 CHF Retail Sales (Real) Y/Y Jan 1.70% -0.40% 8:55 EUR German PMI Services Feb F 59.5 59.5 9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Feb F 57.2 57.2 9:30 GBP PMI Services Feb 54 54.5 10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.30% 0.30% 10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 P 2.00% 2.00% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Jan 0.30% -0.60% 10:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 0.00% -0.80% 12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- -- 13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 390K 391K 13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 F -0.60% -0.60% 13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q4 F 2.60% 2.60% 15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Feb 59.7 59.4 15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -89B -81B
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9250 Despite yesterday's resumption of downtrend to 0.9202, as the greenback has recovered, suggesting consolidation would take place, however, as long as 0.9282/85 holds, bearishness remains for recent decline to resume, break of said support would extend further weakness to indicated downside target at 0.9182 (100% projection of 0.9739-0.9415 measuring from 0.9506) and possibly 0.9150 Read more... Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3815 Yesterday's breach of resistance at 1.3857-62 confirms upmove has resumed and further gain towards 1.3950 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond psychological resistance at 1.4000 and risk from there has increased for a correction ahead of Friday's release of U.S. job reports. Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights Bernanke Has No Surprises So The Dollar Extends Its Slide Asian Market Update Asia Session Recap March. ECB Meeting And Feb. US Employment Report U.S. Beige Book: Price Pressures Grow, While Weather Slows Growth in January U.S. Beige Book: Economic Activity "Continued to Expand at a Modest to Moderate Pace" at the Beginning of 2011 Technical Highlights The Daily Forecaster: EURUSD USDJPY - Weak And Vulnerable The Daily Wave Analysis Daily Forex Update: USD/JPY EUR/CHF - Trades Like Textbook Technical Analysis Would Suggest

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Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-2-11

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Action Insight	Candlesticks Trades	Markets Summary	Action Bias	Top Movers	Daily Technicals
Calendar	Elliott Wave Trades	Markets Volatility	Pivot Points	Heat Map	Daily Fundamentals

Action Insight Market Overview	Markets Snapshot
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Testing Support after ADP, Breaking Out? Dollar extends earlier weakness despite solid job data. ADP employment report showed 217k expansion private sector job markets in February, above expectation of 185k. Though, challenger report showed 20% yoy increase in planned layoff. Dollar struggles to stage a sustainable recovery as gold continues to make new record high and hit 1437.2 in early US session. Crude oil also stays firm around 100 level. EUR/USD breaches recent resistance of 1.3860 while USD/CHF also breaches 0.9233 support. Nevertheless, no follow through selling in dollar is seen yet. Full Report Here...
Featured Technical Report
USD/CHF Mid-Day Outlook Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9265; (P) 0.9293; (R1) 0.9313; More. USD/CHF's break of 0.9233 support argues that fall from 0.9774 is resuming. Intraday bias is back to the downside and further decline should be seen towards 100% projection of 1.0065 to 0.9300 from 0.9774 at 0.9009, which coincides with major medium term target. On the upside, above 0.9321 minor resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound. Read more... EURUSD Technical Outlook USDJPY Technical Outlook GBPUSD Technical Outlook USDCHF Technical Outlook USDCAD Technical Outlook AUDUSD Technical Outlook EURJPY Technical Outlook EURGBP Technical Outlook EURCHF Technical Outlook GBPJPY Technical Outlook

Forex Brokers

Special Reports

ECB Should Leave Rates Unchanged, Extend LTRO But Sound More Upbeat The ECB will likely leave the main refinancing rate unchanged at 1% in March, although delivering a more hawkish tone in the press conference and the accompanying statement. ECB's staff projections on growth and inflation will also be revised up. Concerning the non-standard liquidity measures, the central bank will likely extend the full-allotment procedure for all open market operations for another 3 months but rates may vary. Read more... BOC Sees Faster Growth, CAD Retreats on Profit-Taking The Bank of Canada delivered a more hawkish tone in March than previously despite no change in the policy rate. Policymakers stated the recovery in Canada has progressed 'slightly faster than expected' and any rate hike will be carefully considered. The Canadian dollar retreated after surging to a 3-year high against the dollar on profit-taking. Read more... RBA On Hold, Sees Only Moderate Inflationary Pressure As widely expected, the RBA kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.75% as inflation remained contained. The accompanying statement delivered a neutral tone as policymakers see balanced risks to growth and inflation outlook. For the first time in the current tightening cycle, the RBA stated that the current stance of monetary policy is 'mildly restrictive'. Yet it remained 'appropriate in view of the general macroeconomic outlook'. Read more...

Economic Indicators Update	Learn Expert Strategies for Pulling Profits from the Markets. The London Traders Expo on April 8-9, 2011 at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre. Visit The London Traders Expo online to register FREE.
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised 23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Feb 5.60% 6.40% 5.50% 00:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q4 0.70% 0.60% 0.20% 0.10% 00:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q4 2.50% -- 2.70% 09:30 GBP PMI Construction Feb 56.5 53.1 53.7 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Jan 1.50% 1.00% 0.80% 10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Jan 6.10% 5.60% 5.30% 12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Feb 20% -- -46.10% 13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Feb 217K 185K 187K 189K 13:30 CAD Industrial Product Price M/M Jan 0.20% 0.50% 0.70% 0.80% 13:30 CAD Raw Materials Price Index M/M Jan 0.30% 3.20% 4.20% 15:00 USD Bernanke Semiannual Testimony at House -- -- 15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.1M 0.8M 19:00 USD Fed Beige Book -- --
Forex Trade Ideas
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6245 Cable's strong rebound after intra-day fall to 1.6216 suggests the correction from yesterday's high of 1.6330 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen but break of said resistance is needed to signal upmove has resumed and extend gain to indicated upside target at 1.6350 but reckon loss of near term upward momentum would limit upside to 1.6390/00 and risk has increased for a minor correction later. Read more... Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 0.9830 Although the greenback has retreated after rebounding from yesterday's low at 0.9684 to 0.9777 (today's high), break of said support is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 0.9650 and possibly 0.9600, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Above said resistance would bring retracement to 0.9820/30 where renewed selling interest would emerge there, bring another decline Read more... Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): 1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530 Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings
Fundamental Highlights USD View on a Fulcrum Dollar Spikes after ADP Jobs Optimism Markets on High Alert ECB Preview: The Last Rendezvous on Allotment Technical Highlights EUR/USD Forms Positive Reversal; Swing Projection Targets 1.3890 FX Thoughts for the Day GBPJPY Cautiously Bearish Below 133.57 Ones to Watch: Stocks and AUDUSD EURUSD - Continues To Face Upside Risk

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