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Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Rally on Solid Data, Swiss Franc Even StrongerEuro extends rally today with support from solid employment data from Germany and improving confidence in Eurozone. Germany unemployment rate dropped to 7.6% in July, hitting the lowest level since November 2008. Economic confidence rose to a two year high of 101.3 in July versus expectation of 99. Industrial confidence and services confidence also improved more than expected to -4 and 6 respectively while consumer confidence was unchanged at -14. Additionally, dollar is pressure as a Moody's analysts is quoted saying that US's credit rating would need to be reviewed if the current projections for debt are realized. EUR/USD climbs to as high as 1.3091 while EUR/GBP also rebounds to 0.8378 so far. However, Euro is noticeably weak against Swiss Franc as EUR/CHF drops through 1.3629 minor resistance. |
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USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.0527; (P) 1.0575; (R1) 1.0614; More. USD/CHF's sharp fall today and break of 1.0481 minor support indicates that consolidations from 1.0399 is likely finished at 1.0639 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside. Further break of 1.0394 low will confirm that whole fall from 1.1729 has resumed and should target outer trend line support (0.9634, 0.9916, now at 1.0020). On the upside, note that even in case of another recovery, outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.0674 resistance holds and we'd expect another fall. |
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RBNZ Raised OCR To 3%, Signaled Slowdown In Pace Of TighteningThe RBNZ raised the OCR by +25 bps to 3% in June. However, the market was disappointed as the central bank explicitly said that 'the pace and extent of further OCR increases is likely to be more moderate than was projected in the June statement'. The reference is inline with our view that the RBNZ will slow the tightening path later in the year. July's Beige Book Shows Slowdown in GrowthFed's beige Book covering the period spanning mid-June through late-July reported that 'economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since the previous survey' but economies in 2 (Cleveland and Kansas City) of the Fed's 12 districts 'held steady' while 2 (Atlanta and Chicago) showed slowdown in the pace of expansion. The overall outlook is less optimistic than June's report as the Fed described the economy in all 12 districts as 'continued to improve' at 'modest' pace. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8450Despite yesterday's marginal fall to 0.8313, lack of follow through selling after breaking support at 0.8318 and current rebound suggest consolidation would be seen and recovery to 0.8395/00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8532 to 0.8313) is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.8445/50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another decline later. Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Buy at 1.0200Although near term sideways trading is expected to continue, as long as indicated resistance at 1.0390/00 holds, near term downside risk remains for the fall from 1.0678 to extend weakness to 1.0230/35, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon 1.0190/00 would limit downside and bring another rebound later. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 1.0510Dollar's intra-day selloff and the breach of support at 1.0461 signals the correction from 1.0394 low has ended at 1.0640 and bearishness remains for further weakness towards 1.0408, however, break of said support at 1.0394 is needed to confirm early decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.0340/50 which is likely to hold from here due to near term oversold condition. Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5500Despite intra-day rise to 1.5663, the retreat from there suggests minor consolidation would take place in the near term and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.5561) is likely, below would bring test of the lower Kumo at 1.5535, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 1.5495/00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5234 to 1.5663) and bring another upmove. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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