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Monday, February 28, 2011
Don't Miss Out! Three Techniques for Spotting Market Twists and Turns
Sunday, February 27, 2011
Action Insight Daily Report 2-28-11
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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
| Calendar | Elliott Wave Trades | Markets Volatility | Pivot Points | Heat Map | Daily Fundamentals |
| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Yen Reverses after Initial GainThe Japanese yen edged higher initially as the week starts but reversed into European session. Asian equities opened lower today as worry on continnuing unrest in MENA and risk of spread over. Also, there are concerns that the new Irish goverment would seek to share the burden of financial system recus with senior bank bondholders. Also, China Premier lowered the country's growth target. However, Japanese stock staged a strong rebound after news that Mizuho Securties will be bought out but its parent company. |
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EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 111.88; (P) 112.66; (R1) 113.11; More EUR/JPY recovers after dipping to as low as 111.95. But after all, near term outlook remains unchanged. Consolidations from 114.00 is likely still in progress with fall from 114.15 as the third leg. Deeper decline is still in favor towards 110.77 support and possibly below. Though, downside is expected to be contained above 109.56 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 106.81 to 114.00 at 109.55) and bring rally resumption. On the upside, decisive break of 114.15 will confirm rally resumption and target 115.65 resistance next. |
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RBA Comfortable With Current Rates, Weighs Growth Higher Than InflationRBA's Policymakers appear to be comfortable with an above-neutral policy rate for now. Therefore, it's highly likely that the central bank will pause again at the March meeting, leaving the cash rate at 4.75%. The accompanying statement is expected to contain little surprises as much was talked during a speech (by Governor Glenn Stevens) in Melbourne last week. Compared with the previous meeting, the new information would be on the heightened inflation outlook as induced by recent rally in oil prices. The Governor may also want to talk about the impacts of a slowdown in Chinese growth. BoC to Leave Policy Rate UnchangedThe Bank of Canada will likely leave the overnight rate unchanged at 1%. Policymakers will note that domestic economic growth has softened recently though the global outlook has shown more sustainability. The tone in the policy statement will remain dovish, indicating presence of some event risks: strength in Canadian dollar since the last meeting, renewed sovereign concerns in the European periphery and civil unrests in the Middle East and North Africa. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.6100As the British pound has risen again after Friday's rebound from 1.6030, suggesting the fall from 1.6275 has formed a low there and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of Friday's high at 1.6161 and then test of 1.6179-81 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6275-1.6030) but reckon upside would be limited to minor resistance at 1.6210/15 Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.25Although the greenback retreated after rebounding to 82.07 last Friday, break of last week's low at 81.62 is needed to confirm decline from 83.98 has resumed and extend weakness towards recent low at 81.10, otherwise, further consolidation would take place and another corrective rise to said resistance at 82.07 cannot be ruled out. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Saturday, February 26, 2011
Action Insight Weekly Report 2-27-11
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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
| Calendar | Elliott Wave Trades | Markets Volatility | Pivot Points | Heat Map | Daily Fundamentals |
| Action Insight Weekly Report | Markets Snapshot |
CHF, CAD, Oil Jumped on MENA; EUR/USD Facing Resistance ahead of an Important WeekGeopolitical development in Middle East and North Africa was the main theme in financial markets last week as violence in Libya escalated. Swiss Franc strengthened across the board and jumped to new record high against dollar. Crude oil breached 100 level briefly on worry of supply disruption and, in a somewhat delayed manner, sent Canadian dollar to three year high against dollar. Australian dollar also managed to strengthen on strength in commodity prices. Euro and Sterling were supported by rate speculations initial. But Euro gave way after failing key near term resistance while Sterling dropped after renewed worry on growth. Dollar received no support from risk aversion. However, the dollar index seemed to stabilizing ahead of 76.88 key near term support level and we would probably see some recovery this week as oil consolidates around 100 level. |    |
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EUR/USD Weekly OutlookEUR/USD rose further to 1.3837 last week but faced some resistance ahead of 1.3860 and retreated. A temporary top is at least formed and initial bias is neutral this week. As noted before, we're favoring the case that consolidations from 1.3860 is not over yet. That is, rise from 1.3427 is possibly the second leg of the consolidation. Hence, even in case of another rise, the pair would face strong resistance at 1.3860 and bring another fall. Below 1.3704 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3427 as the third leg consolidations. But after all, outlook in EUR/USD will remain cautiously bullish with 1.3253 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.3860 at 1.3250) intact. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.3860 will confirm that rise from 1.2873 has resumed and should target 1.4281 high next. |
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Friday, February 25, 2011
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-25-11
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| Action Insight | Candlesticks Trades | Markets Summary | Action Bias | Top Movers | Daily Technicals |
| Calendar | Elliott Wave Trades | Markets Volatility | Pivot Points | Heat Map | Daily Fundamentals |
| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rebounds Against European Majors, Weak Against Commodity CurrenciesDollar recovers mildly against European majors today but remains soft against commodity currencies on risk appetite. US Q4 GDP growth was revised down from 3.2% qoq to 2.8% qoq, notably weaker than expectation of 3.3% qoq. For the whole of 2010, US economy expanded 2.8% qoq, strongest in five years after contracting -2.6% in 2009. GBP price index was revised slightly higher to 0.4% qoq. Dollar should be getting some technical support with dollar index holding above 76.88 while EUR/USD is held below 1.3860 resistance. |
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EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3729; (P) 1.3774 (R1) 1.3845; More. With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, intraday bias in EUR/USD in turned neutral for the moment. As noted before, we're favoring the case that consolidations from 1.3860 is not over yet. That is, current rise from 1.3427 is possibly the second leg of the consolidation. Hence, even in case of another rise, the pair would face strong resistance at 1.3860 and bring another fall. Below 1.3704 minor support will flip bias back to the downside for 1.3427 and below. But after all, outlook in EUR/USD will remain cautiously bullish with 1.3253 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2873 to 1.3860 at 1.3250) intact. Rise from 1.2873 is still expected to resume sooner or later. Meanwhile, decisive break of 1.3860 will confirm that rise from 1.2873 has resumed and should target 1.4281 high next. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 82.60Despite intra-day rise to 1.3839, as the single currency has retreated again in European session, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3753) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around yesterday's low at 1.3704 and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend recent rise to previous resistance at 1.3862 Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3705Despite intra-day rise to 1.3839, as the single currency has retreated again in European session, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and retracement to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3753) is likely, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around yesterday's low at 1.3704 and bring another upmove later. Above said resistance would extend recent rise to previous resistance at 1.3862 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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