Friday, September 10, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 9-10-10

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Mid-Day Report: Canadian Dollar Lacks Follow Through Buying after Mixed Employment Data

Canadian dollar spikes higher in early US session after job market report showed more than expected expansion of 35.8k in August. However, we're not selling much follow through buying yet as the positive picture was dampened by unexpected rise in unemployment rate to 8.1%. Swiss franc is sharply lower across the board. Traders are citing strong risk appetite as the driving force in Franc's selloff after strong China import data. However, we're doubtful on such argument as European stocks are broadly flat only. We don't see any momentum in equities yet. Swiss weakness is possibly not due to intervention neither as the pattern doesn't look like so. It's believed that traders are lightening long positions in Swiss franc ahead of next Thursday's SNB rate decision instead.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/CAD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0294; (P) 1.0344; (R1) 1.0387; More.

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment and further decline is still expected to 1.0246 support. Break will target 1.0106 key support level next. Though, note that USD/CAD is still bounded in choppy sideway trading between 1.0106/0675. We'd expect strong support from around parity to contain downside and bring another rebound. On the upside, above 1.0393 will turn intraday bias neutral again. Note that more choppy consolidations would still be seen before a break of 1.0675 resistance.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BoJ Minutes -- --
23:50 JPY GDP Q/Q Q2 F 0.40% 0.40% 0.10%
23:50 JPY GDP Deflator Y/Y Q2 F -1.70% -1.80% -1.80%
23:50 JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Y/Y Aug 0.00% -0.20% -0.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.10%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Aug 4.70% 4.80% 5.00%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Aug 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
8:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Aug 4.70% 4.60% 4.70%
8:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Aug -0.50% 0.20% -1.00%
8:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Aug 8.10% 9.00% 10.80%
11:00 CAD Net Change in Employment Aug 35.8K 17.8K -9.3K
11:00 CAD Unemployment Rate Aug 8.10% 8.00% 8.00%
14:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Jul 0.40% 0.10%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 1.0200

As the greenback has maintained a firm undertone after breaking resistance at 1.0239, suggesting further gain towards 1.0302-09 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0451-1.0060 and previous resistance) would be seen, however, it is necessary to see a rise above this level to retain bullishness and signal retracement of early downtrend has commenced for subsequent rise towards 1.0345 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0630 to 1.0060).

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