Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Action Insight Daily Report 1-13-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Euro Maintains Gain ahead of ECB, Spain Bond Auction

Euro maintains yesterday's strong Portugal bond sales triggered gains and is firm against the greenback. Focus will turn to ECB meeting and Spain bond auctions today. No change in monetary policy is expected at the January ECB meeting. While economic data released since the previous meeting have shown better momentum in the region's economic activities, the central bank would view these as premature to alter monetary decisions. At the press conference, we expect lots of questions about ongoing sovereign debt crisis in peripheral countries and the ECB's tendency to purchase more debts.The BOE will also leave the Bank rate at 0.5% and the asset-purchase program at 200B pound.

Full Report Here...


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Featured Technical Report

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 108.22; (P) 108.61; (R1) 109.38; More

EUR/JPY's recovery extends further to as high as 109.13 so far. At this point, intraday day bias is mildly on the upside for further recovery. Nevertheless, outlook will remain bearish as long as 110.23 resistance holds and we'd favor another fall. Below 107.84 minor support will flip bias back to the downside. Further break of 106.81 will bring retest of 105.42 low next. However, break of 110.23 will argue that fall from 115.56 might be finished and bring stronger rebound.

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Special Reports

ECB And BOE To Stay On The Sidelines

No change in monetary policy is expected at the January ECB meeting. While economic data released since the previous meeting have shown better momentum in the region's economic activities, the central bank would view these as premature to alter monetary decisions. At the press conference, we expect lots of questions about ongoing sovereign debt crisis in peripheral countries and the ECB's tendency to purchase more debts.

Read more...

2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast

Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more...

JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more...

Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more...

Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more...

US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more...

Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Nov -3.00% 2.00% -1.40%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Nov 1.60% 17.40% 7.00%
0:30 AUD Unemployment Rate Dec 5.00% 5.10% 5.20%
0:30 AUD Employment Change Dec 2.3K 25.0K 54.6K
6:00 JPY Machine Tool Orders Y/Y Dec P -- 104.20%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Nov 0.50% -0.20%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Nov 3.30% 3.30%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Nov 0.40% 0.60%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Nov 5.30% 5.80%
12:00 GBP BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B
12:45 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Nov -2.0B -1.7B
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 402K 409K
13:30 USD Continuing Claims 4100K 4103K
13:30 USD PPI M/M Dec 0.80% 0.80%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Dec 3.80% 3.50%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Dec 0.20% 0.30%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Dec 1.40% 1.20%
13:30 USD Trade Balance Nov -41.2B -38.7B
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -146B -135B
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Dec -- 0.60%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5600

Despite intra-day retreat to 1.5475, as the British pound has recovered after holding above the Ichimoku cloud bottom, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and a break of the lower Kumo (now at 1.5461) is needed to confirm the rebound from 1.5407 has ended at 1.5579 last Friday and bring further weakness to 1.5425.

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3020

Although euro has remained under pressure, a break of intra-day support at 1.2860 is needed to extend recent downtrend towards 1.2843 (50% projection of 1.4283 to 1.2969 measuring from 1.3500) but reckon 1.2795 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.1876 to 1.4283) would remain intact due to oversold condition, bring rebound later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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