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Daily Report: Dollar Rebounded on Commodities Selloff, Aussie Hit HardDollar rebounded strongly overnight as boosted by the sharp reversal in commodities. Just after making a new high at 335.32 on Monday, the CRB commodity index erased most recent gains and dived to close at 327.73. Gold was sharply off recent high at 1424 and is back trading below 1390. Crude oil also dropped below 89 level after climbing to 92.58 on Monday. Australian dollar was hardest hit and breached parity briefly in Asian session. Technically recent price actions in dollar are quite mixed. EUR/USD and GBP/USD looks corrective in nature and we're still favoring more downside in both pairs. However, USD/JPY and USD/CHF are both weak and we're not convinced of bottoming yet. The major development to watch in the coming days would be on whether there are sharper selloffs in commodities that could help lift the greenback. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 108.43; (P) 109.33; (R1) 110.05; More EUR/JPY's break of 108.90 minor support, with 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, indicates that recovery from 107.60 might be finished at 110.23 already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 107.60 low first. Break there will confirm that whole decline from 115.65 has resumed and should target 105.42 key support level next. On the upside, above 110.23 will bring another rise. But after all, as long as 112.18 resistance holds and whole decline form 115.65 is still in favor to continue. |
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| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional EasingFiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro LowerUS - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3350Although the single currency rose marginally to 1.3435 yesterday, lack of follow through buying and the subsequent sharp retreat formed a 'shooting star' candlestick pattern on the hourly chart, adding credence to our view that top has possibly been formed there and consolidation with downside bias remains for test of 1.3250 support but break there is needed to confirm, then weakness to1.3224 and 1.3200 would follow. Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9400Despite intra-day marginal rise to 0.9519 (yesterday's high was 0.9518), lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would take place and retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9442) cannot be ruled out, however, reckon previous resistance at 0.9385-98 would hold and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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