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Mid-Day Report: Aussie Still Pressured by Flood, Euro SteadyAustralian dollar remains the weakest currency this week as the disastrous flood is still troubling the country. Three quarter of the Australian state of Queensland declared a disaster zone already as the flood worsens. So far there has been over 10 dead and 80 missing in the north easter state of Queensland and death toll may more than double. Brisbane residents are urged to be prepared for enormous disruption. From the angle of the economy, markets are continuing to adjust estimation of the economic impact of the Queensland flood. State government estimated that the cost of rebuilding infrastructure in Queensland to be about AUD 5b. Meanwhile, ANZ banking group estimated the the coal industry is going to lose AUD480b a week because of flooded pits. Overall, markets are estimating that the flood will drop GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.25%, spreading over the Q4 to Q1. Aussie is trying to recover on short covering in early US session. But the development this week so far suggests that we'll more likely see more downside in Aussie in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9627; (P) 0.9677; (R1) 0.9724; More. Upside momentum in USD/CHF remains unconvincing with 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, as the pair is struggling around 55 days EMA. But after all, we'd favor more upside for the moment with 0.9603 minor support intact. Current rally would extend further towards 1.0065 resistance. On the downside, though, below 0.9603 will suggest that a short term top is formed and bring deeper pullback and lengthier consolidations. However, note that there is no change in our bullish view. Fall from 1.0065 was completed and a short term bottom is at least formed at 0.9300. Considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, fall from 1.1729 might be finished too. Eventually, we'd expect stronger rally to retest 1.0065. |
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| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more... JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more... Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more... Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more... US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more... |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9610As the greenback has retreated after faltering below yesterday's high at 0.9727, retaining our view that further consolidation below this level would take place and below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9650) would bring retracement to 0.9600/10 before renewed buying interest emerges again and bring another upmove. Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3040Despite intra-day retreat from 1.2992 to 1.2912, as euro has rebounded in tandem with cable, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and upside risk has increased for another corrective bounce to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3018) and possibly 1.3040 but reckon 1.3065 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3192 to 1.2860) would hold, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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