Friday, January 14, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-14-11

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Mid-Day Report: Risk Appetite Hit after China Raised RRR again

Risk appetite took a hit earlier today after China unexpected raised bank reserve requirement again by 50bps in response to strong inflation reading of 5.1% yoy in November, highest in more than 2 years. This is the fourth time PBoC raised the so called reserve ratio in two months. In response to the news, in response to the news, European equities are mildly pressured. Though, US equities futures were mixed as JPMorgan Chase says its fourth-quarter profit jumped 47% as the company was able to set aside less money to cover loan losses. In the forex markets, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar are sharply lower while dollar somewhat stabilizes from its selloff against Euro.

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Featured Technical Report

AUD/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9920; (P) 0.9970; (R1) 1.0024; More

AUD/USD's sharp fall from 1.0019 and the break of 0.9919 minor support suggest that recovery from 0.9803 is finished already. Intraday bias is flipped back to the downside for 0.9803 support first. break there will indicate that whole decline from 1.0254 has resumed. Also, this will bolster the case that 1.0254 is reversing the larger up trend and will bring deeper fall to 0.9536 support for confirmation.

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Forex Brokers
Advanced Currency Markets Saxobank GFT InterbankFX FXCM
2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast

Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more...

JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more...

Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more...

Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more...

US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more...
Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI M/M Dec 1.20% 0.20% 0.10%
07:00 EUR German CPI M/M Dec F 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
07:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Dec F 1.70% 1.70% 1.70%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices M/M Dec 0.30% 0.10% -0.20%
08:15 CHF Producer & Import Prices Y/Y Dec 0.30% 0.10% 0.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Dec 3.40% 1.70% 0.90%
09:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Dec 12.50% 10.20% 9.00% 9.20%
09:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Dec 0.50% 0.40% 0.30%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Dec 4.20% 3.90% 3.90% 4.10%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Dec 0.20% 0.30% 0.20%
09:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Dec 2.90% 3.00% 3.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Dec 0.60% 0.60% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Dec 2.20% 2.20% 2.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Core Y/Y Dec 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Trade Balance (euros) Nov -1.9B 4.2B 3.6B
13:30 USD CPI M/M Dec 0.50% 0.40% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Y/Y Dec 1.50% 1.30% 1.10%
13:30 USD CPI Core M/M Dec 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD CPI Core Y/Y Dec 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Dec 0.60% 0.80% 0.80%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Dec 0.50% 0.70% 1.20%
14:15 USD Industrial Production Dec 0.50% 0.40%
14:15 USD Capacity Utilization Dec 75.60% 75.20%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Jan P 75.5 74.5
15:00 USD Business Inventories Nov 0.70% 0.70%
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9720

Dollar's rebound after intra-day marginal fall to 0.9605 retains our view that minor consolidation would take place and recovery to the 0.9700 is likely, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9723) and bring another decline. A break of 0.9600-05 support would bring correction of recent upmove towards 0.9540/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9301 to 0.9784)

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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3270 or sell at 1.3500

Although intra-day retreat form 1.3458 signals a minor top has been formed there and correction to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3290) is likely, reckon 1.3265/70 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2962 to 1.3458) would limit downside and attract renewed buying interest, bring another rise later. Above said resistance at 1.3458 would extend one more upmove to 1.3471/74

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 

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