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Daily Report: Euro Soft in Crosses, Canadian Dollar Firm ahead of BoCEuro stays in range against Dollar, but is soft against Sterling and Swissy. EU finance ministers started a 2-day meeting yesterday in Brussels to discuss strategies to fight the sovereign debt crisis. Although rumors said Germany might not oppose the idea, it turned out that German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble resisted expanding the size of the EFSF for now- it will be delayed until March. EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn said finance leaders would improve the 'currently existing backstops so that the so-called market forces can't have the slightest doubt about our capacity to act even in most stressed scenarios'. He also stressed that they EU will implement more rigorous stress tests on banks in the first half of this year. Markets, which are expecting something more solid, are a bit disappointed. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9850; (P) 0.9875; (R1) 0.9895; More. USD/CAD's fall from 0.9976 extends further today and is set to take on 0.9847 low. Current development indicates that the pair hasn't bottomed yet. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside and break of 0.9847 will target 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779. On the upside, above 0.9900 will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 0.9976 resistance. Also, note bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 0.9976 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound through parity. |
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| Special Report |
BOC To Leave Policy Rate Unchanged, More Upbeat On Economic OutlookThe BOC is expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1% in January. Given encouraging economic data released recently as well as the impact of US stimulus in 2011, the central bank may sound more hawkish in the accompanying statement and will probably raise its growth and inflation forecasts. As the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR) will be released on Wednesday, Governor Mark Carney may talk more about economic growth outlook in the accompanying statement. In terms of risks, the BOC will show concerns about appreciation of CAD. Certainly, lessened growth in the US and sovereign crisis in the Eurozone are also downside risks to Canada's growth. We expect the central bank will begin tightening in 3Q11. |
| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more... JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more... Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more... Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more... US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more... |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9685Dollar's intra-day breach of indicated support at 0.9600/05 suggests the corrective decline from 0.9784 top has resumed and a stronger retracement of recent upmove to rise from 0.9301 0.9570, then 0.9540/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9301 to 0.9784) would be seen, however, reckon previous resistance at 0.9518 would hold from here. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3210Although the single currency has rebounded after holding above yesterday's low at 1.3243 and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen, a sustained breach of the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3372) is needed to signal the correction from last week's high at 1.3458 has ended at 1.3243 yesterday and bring test of 1.3400/05, break there would confirm upmove has resumed for a retest of 1.3458. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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