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Mid-Day Report: CAD Spikes Lower after BoC, GBP Jumps on Strong CPICanadian dollar is sharply lower after BoC left rates unchanged at 1.00% and published a statement that is less hawkish than expected. BoC did raise growth projection to 2.4% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012, which the bank described as "a slightly firmer profile than had been anticipated in the October MPR". Nevertheless, the bank also pointed out " the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and Canada's poor relative productivity performance are restraining this recovery in net exports and contributing to a widening of Canada's current account deficit to a 20-year high." Meanwhile, inflation pressures remains "subdued" and inflation expectations remain "well-anchored". BoC still expect core CPI to edge up gradually to 2% by end of 2012 when headline CPI to converge to 2% target. One again, the bank noted that further removal of policy stimulus "need to be carefully considered." Data from US saw Empire state manufacturing index rose to 11.9 but was below expectation of 12.3 in January. TIC capital flows jumped sharply to 85.1b in November. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CAD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9850; (P) 0.9875; (R1) 0.9895; More. Despite edging lower to 0.9836 earlier today, USD/CAD rebounded strongly in early US session. Intraday bias is flipped back to the upside after taking out 0.9900 minor resistance and further rise could now be seen towards 0.9976. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD, break of 0.9974 will indicate short term bottoming and bring stronger rebound through parity. On the downside, below 0.9836 will bring another fall, but USD/CAD should continue to lose downside momentum and should eventually be supported by 61.8% projection of 1.0671 to 0.9979 from 1.0207 at 0.9779 to bring a sizeable rebound. |
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| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more... JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more... Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more... Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more... US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more... |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9645Dollar's intra-day recovery from 0.9557 suggests minor consolidation would take place, however, renewed selling interest should emerge below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 0.9651) and bring another decline later. A break of said support would extend the fall from 0.9784 top for a stronger retracement of recent upmove from 0.9301 to 0.9540/45 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9301 to 0.9784) Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3345Euro's intra-day rally to 1.3430 suggests the correction from 1.3458 has ended at 1.3243 yesterday and upside bias remains for a retest of said resistance, break there would confirm and extend recent upmove from 1.2860 to resistance at 1.3500 and possibly 1.3520 (50% projection of 1.2904 to 1.3458 measuring from 1.3243), however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3542 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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