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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Losses Some Steam With Jobless Claims Back above 400kDespite edging higher against European majors earlier today, dollar losses some steam in early US session after data showed jobless claims rose back to above 400k level at 409k. Nevertheless, note that US treasury yields are helping dollar's rally in this first week of 2011. Thirty year yield (TNX) was sharply up from last week's low of 4.331 and is back above 4.55. We're cautiously bullish in yield for the moment and expect TNX to climb through recent high of 4.624. In that case, dollar would likely be taken higher, in particular with USD/JPY breaking through 84.49 resistance. Meanwhile, we'd like to point out again that the sustainability of dollar's rebound will also depend on whether gold and oil could hold on to 1350 and 90 respectively. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3075; (P) 1.3200 (R1) 1.3275; More. EUR/USD is still bounded in range of 1.3054/3433 and neutral term outlook remains neutral. As noted before, recent price actions from 1.2969 are likely consolidation patterns, possibly in form of triangle. That is, fall from 1.4281 is not over yet. Below 1.3054 will indicate that such decline is resuming for 1.2969 and below. On the upside, above 1.3433 will dampen this view and bring stronger rebound for 1.3785 resistance instead. |
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| 2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook | 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast |
JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional EasingFiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro LowerUS - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus |
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| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9600Although the greenback rose marginally to 0.9708, lack of follow through buying suggests consolidation would take place and retracement towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 0.9608) cannot be ruled out, however, renewed buying interest should emerge around 0.9600 and bring another upmove later towards resistance area at 0.9722-35 Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5540Cable's intra-day retreat from 1.5564 suggests bearishness remains for a test of yesterday's low at 1.5451, below would extend weakness to indicated lower range at 1.5434, however, a breach of this level is needed to confirm a downside break of the indicated 1.5434-1.5665 range has occurred and extend fall to 1.5400, however, reckon support at 1.5367 would hold from here. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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