Thursday, January 20, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-20-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Trying to Rebound in Gold's Selloff, Yen Weakening

Dollar is trying to fight back in early US session with the help of selloff in Gold, which breaks through recent low of 1352. The greenback is also supported by initial jobless claims dropped more than expected to 404k. Aussie is particularly weak as hurt by gold's fall as well as concern on China tightening The Japanese yen, is another weak currency today on concern of worsening government finances in Japan. Also, yen would be vulnerable to further decline if longer term US treasury jumps as the US session goes.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3381; (P) 1.3459 (R1) 1.3551; More.

EUR/USD continues to struggle around 1.35 level and intraday bias remains neutral. Failure to sustain above 1.3496, followed by break of 1.3245 will indicate that rebound from 1.3245 is finished and will turn focus back to 1.2873 low. Break will confirm that whole fall from 1.4281 is still in progress. On the upside, break of 1.3537 and sustained trading above 1.3496 will confirm that whole decline from 1.4281 has completed at 1.2873 already. Note that the corrective three wave structure of the fall, with 1.2643 support intact, will indicate that rebound from 1.1875 is possibly not over yet.

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2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast
  • Downside Risks To AUD Expected To Come Earlier Rather Than Later Read more...
  • Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more...
  • JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more...
  • Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more...
  • Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more...
  • US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more...
Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD CPI Q/Q Q4 2.30% 2.40% 1.10%
21:45 NZD CPI Y/Y Q4 4.00% 4.10% 1.50%
23:30 AUD Consumer Inflation Expectation Jan 4.60% -- 2.80%
07:00 EUR German PPI M/M Dec 0.70% 0.50% 0.20%
07:00 EUR German PPI Y/Y Dec 5.30% 5.10% 4.40%
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Jan -18.4 -- -12.5
11:00 GBP CBI Trends Total Orders Jan -16 0 -3
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Dec 0.50% 0.40% 0.30%
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Nov 1.20% 0.60% 0.00%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 404K 426K 445K
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed Survey Jan 22.3 20.8
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Dec 4.92M 4.68M
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Dec 0.70% 1.10%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -223B -138B
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.1M -2.2M
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF –Sell at 0.9630

As the greenback has recovered again after holding above indicated support at 0.9521 (yesterday's low), retaining our near term consolidative view for further sideways trading above this level to take place and above intra-day resistance at 0.9579 would bring another rebound to the Ichimoku cloud area (now at 0.9600-14), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 0.9630/35 and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD –Sell at 1.0010

Despite yesterday's rise to 1.0077 (just missed our short entry at 1.0080 with 3 points), aussie met heavy offers there and has retreated, retaining our bearish view that the rebound from 0.9803 is merely a correction of the decline from 1.0257 and consolidation with downside bias remains for another fall to 0.9856 support but break there is needed to signal the aforesaid decline has resumed, bring retest of 0.9803 later.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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