Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 1-12-11

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Extends Recovery after Solid Portugal Bond Auction, EU Aid Plan

Euro extends this week's recovery against dollar after Portugal delivered a solid auction with yield not as high as market feared. Portugal successfully sold maximum target of EUR 1.25b of 2014 and 2020 government bonds today with bid-to-cover ratios at 2.6 and 3.2 respectively versus prior bid-to-cover ratios of 2.8 and 2.1. Average yield for 2014 bonds was at 5.396%, up from prior 4.015% while the average yield for the 2020 bonds was at 6.716%, slightly down from prior 6.806%. 80% of demand came from foreign investors. The sub-7% yield of the nine-year bond eased worry of an imminent bailout, even though analysts still believe that bailout is eventually inevitable.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 82.78; (P) 83.13; (R1) 83.59; More.

USD/JPY recovers mildly in early US session but is still bounded in familiar range below 83.67. Intraday bias remains neutral and more sideway trading might be seen but retreat is expected to be contained by 82.27 support and bring another rise. Above 83.67 will target a test on 84.49 resistance first and break there will confirm that whole rebound from 80.29 has resumed for 100% projection of 80.29 to 84.49 from 80.93 at 85.13. Though, below 82.27 will turn focus back to 80.93 support instead.

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Forex Brokers
Advanced Currency Markets Saxobank GFT InterbankFX FXCM
2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook 2011 Elliott Wave Forecast

Franc's Safe-Haven Status Remains In 2011, SNB To Tighten In Mid-Year Read more...

JPY to be Weighed Down by Lower Yields and BOJ's Additional Easing Read more...

Fiscal Tightening the Main Theme for UK in 2011 Read more...

Uneven Growth Story Prolongs EZ's Hard Time while Money-Printing Nature in SMP will Send Euro Lower Read more...

US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal Stimulus Read more...

Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock Y/Y Dec 2.30% 2.60% 2.60%
23:50 JPY Current Account (JPY) Nov 1.15T 0.99T 1.46T
00:30 AUD Home Loans Nov 2.50% -1.00% 1.90% 2.20%
05:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Dec 45.1 44.9 43.6
09:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Nov -8.7B -8.2B -8.5B -8.6B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Nov 1.20% 0.50% 0.60%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Nov 7.40% 5.90% 6.90% 7.10%
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Nov 0.30% 0.10% 0.10%
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Dec 1.10% 1.20% 1.30%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 0.4M -4.2M
19:00 USD Fed Budget Statement -150.4B
19:00 USD Fed Beige Book Economic Report
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3080

Although the single currency has retreated after intra-day rebound to 1.3047 (just faltered below indicated option barrier at 1.3050) and test of the Ichimoku cloud (now at 1.2935-47) cannot be ruled out, break of support at 1.2904 is needed to confirm the correction from 1.2860 has ended and bring resumption of decline for a retest of this support.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Short entered at 1.0010 met target at 0.9850 and sell again at 0.9950

The greenback extended recent downtrend in line with our expectation and our short position entered at 1.0010 finally reached indicated downside target at 0.9850 and although this wave (iii) should extend further weakness to 0.9800, near term oversold condition has increased risk of a strong rebound.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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