Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 2-10-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Focus on BoE Inflation Report, Bernanke's Exit Plan, and Still on Greece

Greece is still in center of focus in the financial markets. Euro was lifted by rumors that there will be a rescue plan led by Germany, which falls under the EU framework, for Greece. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble will brief lawmakers today on the plan before EU summit tomorrow. There is no details on the plan yet but it's believed that Germany has already concluded that guarantees are likely the most efficient way to prevent the spread of the debt crisis. Euro might be lifted in near term should the plan is finalized but the longer them impact is unclear as it might further damage trust in the common currency. The development will be closely watched by all investors. In addition, markets will pay close attention to BoE quarterly inflation report and Bernanke's testimony on exit strategies today.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3900

Although the single currency retreated after rising to 1.3840 yesterday and weakness to 1.3700 cannot be ruled out, only break of yesterday's low at 1.3643 is needed to confirm correction from 1.3585 (last Friday's low) has ended and bring resumption of recent decline for retest of this support level later, otherwise, further consolidation would take place. Above said resistance would bring stronger rebound to 1.3902 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4415 to 1.3585), however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5800

Although the British pound retreated after rebounding to 1.5749 yesterday and weakness to 1.5600/10 cannot be ruled out, break of 1.5562 support (yesterday's low) is needed to signal recent decline has resumed and bring retest of Monday's low at 1.5535. Below there would extend selloff towards 1.5500, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5450 and reckon 1.5412 (100% projection of 1.6879 to 1.5832 measuring from 1.6459) would hold from here, bring a much-needed correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3680; (P) 1.3759; (R1) 1.3876; More.

EUR/USD's recovered to as high as 1.3838 but was still limited below mentioned 1.3852 support turned resistance so far. While further rise cannot be ruled out, we'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 1.3852/4025 resistance zone and bring fall resumption. Below 1.3690 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for 1.3585 low first. Break will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 next.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPUSD 1.5677 1.5717 -40 -0.26%
AUDUSD 0.8765 0.8787 -22 -0.25%
NZDUSD 0.6942 0.6958 -16 -0.23%
AUDJPY 78.63 78.79 -16 -0.20%
USDCHF 1.0658 1.0637 +21 +0.20%

Last Updated: Feb 10, 07:15 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 10, 07:15 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Feb -2.60% -- 5.60%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders M/M Dec 20.10% 8.00% -11.30%
23:50 JPY Machine Orders Y/Y Dec -1.50% -10.80% -20.50%
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPIY/Y Jan -2.10% -2.30% -3.90%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Dec 0.20% 0.40%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Dec -4.10% -6.00%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Dec 0.30% 0.00%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Dec -3.00% -5.40%
10:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report -- --
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Dec -0.2B -0.3B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Dec -35.8B -36.4B
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 2.3M
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Jan -66.2B -91.9B
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Jan -- 0.30%
Suggested Readings

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Technical Highlights

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