Thursday, February 11, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 2-12-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Euro Soft as Focus Turns to GDP

Euro was sharply lower overnight as traders were clearly dissatisfied with the vague bailout plan for Greece. The common currency tumbled sharply against commodity currencies and were soft against dollar even though EUR/USD is still holding above recent low of 1.3585. The greenback remains mixed in general as it's facing some pressure from rebound in commodity which saw gold pressing 1100 level while crude oil stays above 75. With the focus temporarily out of Greece, focus now turns to growth data from Eurozone, as well as retail sales from US which was postponed to release today.

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Special Report

2010 Currency Outlook: AUD

In 2009, Australian dollar was the best performer among currencies in advanced economy as the country's economy was more resilient and avoided falling in recession during global financial and economic crisis last year. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia was the first central bank in the world that increased interest rates 3 times last year.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3840

Despite yesterday's fall to 1.3595, as the single currency recovered after holding support at 1.3585, suggesting further consolidation would be seen and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3717) would bring another corrective rise to 1.3840-46 (previous resistance and current level of the Ichimoku cloud top) but renewed selling interest should emerge there, bring retreat later. Below said support at 1.3585 would confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness towards 1.3495/00, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below there and reckon 1.3434 (1.236 times projection of 1.5145 to 1.4218 measuring from 1.4580) would hold, bring a strong rebound later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5760

As cable rebounded after falling to 1.5560 yesterday, retaining our view that further consolidation above this week's low at 1.5535 would be seen, however, renewed selling interest should emerge around resistance at 1.5766 and bring another decline later. A breach of said support at 1.5535 would confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.5500, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5450 and reckon 1.5412 (100% projection of 1.6879 to 1.5832 measuring from 1.6459) would hold from here, bring a much-needed correction later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8665; (P) 0.8752; (R1) 0.8804; More.

The sharp reversal in EUR/GBP argues that rebound from 0.8601 has possibly completed with three waves up to 0.8841 already. The three wave structure in turn argue that recent decline in EUR/GBP is possibly not over yet. Focus now turns to 0.8686. Break of this support will affirm this case and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 0.8601 low next. On the upside, though, break of 0.8841 will indicate that rise from 0.8601 is still in progress for 0.9153 resistance.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
EURUSD 1.3673 1.3692 -19 -0.14%
EURCAD 1.4358 1.4377 -19 -0.13%
NZDUSD 0.6977 0.6985 -8 -0.11%
USDCHF 1.0715 1.0703 +12 +0.11%
EURAUD 1.5360 1.5377 -17 -0.11%

Last Updated: Feb 12, 07:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 12, 07:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Dec 0.00% 0.70% 0.80%
5:00 JPY Households Confidence Jan 39 38.2 37.6
7:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.0% 0.20% 0.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.30% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 A -1.90% -4.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec 0.10% 1.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Dec -1.70% -7.10%
13:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Dec 2.00% -6.00%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jan 0.30% -0.30%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jan 0.40% -0.20%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Feb P 74.8 74.4
15:00 USD Business Inventories Dec 0.40% 0.40%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -176B -115B
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 2.3M
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