Saturday, February 13, 2010

Action Insight Weekly Report 2-13-10

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Action Insight Weekly Report

Euro Pressured Lower in Mixed Markets

The development in EU's help to Greece's fiscal problem remained the center of attention last week. But markets were dissatisfied with the lack of a solid plan from EU other than a pledge and Euro was sent broadly lower. EU finance ministers will meet again this week but may yet again disappoint the markets, which are looking for a plan with a number. Indeed, there were clear opposition to financial aid to Greece in Germany, which is supposed to lead the rescue. A television poll in Germany showed 71% of German voters are against providing financial help for Greece and political pressure would likely refrain German prime minister Merkel from taking any further steps. Eurozone GDP growth was also very disappointing and showed merely 0.1% qoq rise in Q4. In any case, Euro will likely remain pressured in near term.

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Special Report

2010 Currency Outlook: AUD

In 2009, Australian dollar was the best performer among currencies in advanced economy as the country's economy was more resilient and avoided falling in recession during global financial and economic crisis last year. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia was the first central bank in the world that increased interest rates 3 times last year.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook

EUR/USD's recovery was limited by 1.3838 last week and recent decline extended further to as low as 1.3531 so far. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further fall is expected towards 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 first. Break will target 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. On the upside, above 1.3695 will turn intraday bias neutral first. But short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3838 resistance holds. However, break of 1.3838 will argue that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound.

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Weekly Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 79.98 77.49 +249 +3.11%
CADJPY 85.66 83.31 +235 +2.74%
EURAUD 1.5331 1.5748 -417 -2.72%
AUDUSD 0.8890 0.8683 +207 +2.33%
EURCAD 1.4313 1.4645 -332 -2.32%

Currency Heat Map Weekly View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
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