Tuesday, February 2, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-2-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Consolidation Continues, Aussie Remains Soft

Dollar continues to consolidate as global stocks recover. Sterling was lifted by better than construction PMI while Euro is lifted by stronger than expected PPI reading. Nevertheless, the retreat in dollar is so far mild. More apparent strength is seen in Canadian dollar which is supported by crude oil's rebound to above 75 level. Aussie was sold off earlier today as RBA unexpected left rates unchanged and remains soft in early US session.

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Special Report

RBA Warrants Doing Less as China is Doing More

As a surprise to the market, the RBA announced to keep the overnight cash rate unchanged at 3.75%, following 3 consecutive raises last year, as policymakers would like to gauge the impact of previous hikes and stimulus withdrawal.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy On Break Of 127.08

Although the single currency rebounded after falling to 124.45 yesterday, break of 127.08 resistance is needed to confirm low has been formed there as wave v and bring stronger rebound to 128.38, then towards 129.00/10 but reckon resistance at 129.50 would hold from here.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8750

Aussie ran into heavy offers this morning at 0.8928 this morning and fell sharply from there, suggesting the decline from 0.9331 remains in progress and weakness towards 0.8750 cannot be ruled out, however, loss of near term downward momentum should limit downside to recent low at 0.8735 and bring another rebound later. Above 0.8928 would signal low has possibly been formed and bring stronger rise towards 0.8960/65, then test of resistance at 0.9049, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm and extend gain to 0.9095/00 later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 90.01; (P) 90.48; (R1) 91.07; More.

Outlook in USD/JPY remains unchanged. While further recovery cannot be ruled out, fall from 93.74 is still in favor to continue as long as 91.86 resistance holds. Below 89.97 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Break of 89.13 will confirm fall resumption to 87.36 support next. As discussed before, break of 87.36 will also confirm the bearish case that whole rise from 84.10 has completed with three waves up to 93.74 already and that medium term down trend is resuming for another low below 84.81. However break of 91.86 will invalidate the bearish view and suggest that rise from 84.81 is still in progress for another high above 93.74.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 79.92 80.75 -83 -1.04%
EURAUD 1.5788 1.5626 +162 +1.03%
AUDCAD 0.9363 0.9455 -92 -0.98%
AUDUSD 0.8829 0.8913 -84 -0.95%
AUDNZD 1.2461 1.2575 -114 -0.91%

Last Updated: Feb 02, 13:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 02, 13:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Monetary Base Y/Y Jan 4.90% 4.90% 5.20%
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Dec 8 -- 19
3:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision 3.75% 4.00% 3.75%
6:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Jan -7 -10 -14
7:00 EUR German Retail Sales M/M Dec 0.80% 0.90% -1.10% -1.70%
7:00 EUR German Retail Sales Y/Y Dec -2.50% -2.50% -2.80% -2.50%
9:30 GBP PMI Construction Jan 48.6 47.7 47.1
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI M/M Dec 0.10% 0.00% 0.10% 0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone PPI Y/Y Dec -2.90% -3.00% -4.40%
15:00 USD Pending Home Sales M/M Dec 0.60% -16.00%
Suggested Readings

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