Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 2-25-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Daily Report

Yen Surges on Greece Rating Concern

European majors drops through recent low against Japanese yen today as concern on Greece's fiscal deficit is back under spotlight. Standard & Poor's said it may cut Greece's rating again by the end of March on doubt of the country's ability to cut down the huge budget deficit due to weakness in the economy as well as political opposition. Moody's Investors Service also said that sovereign debt rating of Greece would be cut within months if "it appears there are significant deviations from the plan" to cut fiscal deficit. While the Japanese yen rallies across the board, helped by broad based weakness in Asian stocks additionally, dollar follows as gold also drops to as low as 1088.5 today.

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Special Report

Bernanke Reiterated The Low Rate Policy

The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony was inline with market expectation. While the Chairman acknowledged improvement in economic condition, he noted the job market remains quite weak while inflationary pressure will continue to stay subdued. Concerning monetary policy, Bernanke repeated that 'economic conditions -including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations -are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period'.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 90.30, O.C.O. Buy At 88.80

Although dollar's selloff after meeting renewed selling around 90.33/36 yesterday suggests the decline from 92.16 is still in progress and weakness to 89.00 is likely, as broad outlook is still consolidative, reckon downside would be limited to 88.80 and support at 88.55 should hold, bring a rebound later today.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Sell At 1.3635

Although euro has fallen again after yesterday's brief bounce to 1.3627 and retest of 1.3443 cannot be ruled out, break of this support is needed to signal recent decline has once again resumed and extend weakness to 1.3400/05 (approx. 61.8% Fibonacci retracement o 1.2329 to 1.5145). Having said that, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp decline below there and reckon 1.3343-48 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3585 measuring from 1.3840 and 1.4415 to 1.3532 measuring from 1.3789) would hold, bring rebound later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 121.54; (P) 122.07; (R1) 122.55; More.

EUR/JPY's break of 120.69 low confirms that whole decline from 134.36 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further fall should now be seen to 61.8% projection of 134.36 to 120.69 from 125.22 at 116.77 next. On the upside, above 121.56 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 125.22 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 79.34 80.53 -119 -1.50%
NZDJPY 61.54 62.46 -92 -1.49%
CHFJPY 82.27 83.37 -110 -1.34%
GBPJPY 137.05 138.86 -181 -1.32%
EURJPY 120.44 122.02 -158 -1.31%

Last Updated: Feb 25, 07:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 25, 07:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:15 CHF Employment Level Q4 3.95M 3.963M
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Feb 16K 6K
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Feb 8.20% 8.20%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jan 0.00% -0.20%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb 96.4 95.7
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F -17 -17
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb -13 -14
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Feb -1 -1
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Feb -1 -8
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jan 1.40% 0.30%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Jan 1.10% 0.90%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 465K 473K
14:00 USD Fed Bernanke Testifies -- --
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Dec 0.60% 0.70%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -165B -190B
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