Thursday, February 25, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-25-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Yen Extends Rally as Jobless Claims Disappoint

Yen continues to rise on the current wave of risk aversion and extends recent rally in early US session. While Greece's sovereign rating remains the center of focus, worse than expected jobless claim report from US triggers another wave of selling in yen crosses in early US session. Mixed durable goods orders do little help to lift market sentiments. Crude oil dips below 79 level again while gold is pressing 1090 level. US stocks are also set to open lower.

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Special Report

Bernanke Reiterated The Low Rate Policy

The Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony was inline with market expectation. While the Chairman acknowledged improvement in economic condition, he noted the job market remains quite weak while inflationary pressure will continue to stay subdued. Concerning monetary policy, Bernanke repeated that 'economic conditions -including low rates of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations -are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period'.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Sell At 121.65

Euro's breach of 120.70 support signals only wave iii has ended there, followed by wave iv at 125.24 and wave v is still in progress for further weakness to 120.00, however, near term oversold condition would limit downside to 119.00 and reckon 118.40 (50% projection of wave i-iii measuring from wave iv) would hold, bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell At 0.8980

As aussie has recovered after holding above yesterdays low at 0.8857, suggesting further consolidation would take place and although rebound to 0.8952/547 cannot be ruled out, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge below 0.8990 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9072 to 0.8857) and bring another decline in c leg of wave ii later today or tomorrow. Below said support would bring stronger retracement of the wave i rise from 0.8578) to 0.8825 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8578 to 0.9072) and then 0.8800, however, reckon 0.8767 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) would limit downside.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 138.27; (P) 138.92; (R1) 139.50; More

GBP/JPY drops further as expected and reaches as low as 135.82 so far, just inch above mentioned target of 61.8% retracement of 118.81 to 163.05 at 135.70 next. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside and break of 135.70 fibonacci level will target 100% projection of 150.68 to 138.23 from 143.59 at 131.14 next. On the upside, above 137.67 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited well below 143.59 resistance and bring fall resumption.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
CADJPY 83.78 85.53 -175 -2.09%
AUDJPY 78.89 80.53 -164 -2.08%
GBPJPY 136.06 138.86 -280 -2.06%
NZDJPY 61.33 62.46 -113 -1.84%
EURJPY 120.22 122.02 -180 -1.50%

Last Updated: Feb 25, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 25, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
08:15 CHF Employment Level Q4 3.96M 3.95M 3.963M
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Change Feb 7K 18K 6K 5K
08:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate Feb 8.20% 8.20% 8.20% 8.10%
09:00 EUR Eurozone M3 Y/Y Jan 0.10% 0.00% -0.20% -0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Economic Confidence Feb 95.9 96.4 95.7 96
10:00 EUR Eurozone Consumer Confidence Feb F -17 -17 -17
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Confidence Feb -13 -13 -14
10:00 EUR Eurozone Services Confidence Feb 1 -1 -1
12:45 GBP U.K. CBI Distributive Trades Feb 23 -1 -8
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Jan 3.00% 1.40% 0.30%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Jan -0.60% 1.10% 0.90%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 496K 465K 473K
14:00 USD Fed Bernanke Testifies -- --
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Dec 0.60% 0.70%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -165B -190B
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