Sunday, February 21, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 2-22-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar Soft in Quiet Market. A Look at Commodity Crosses

Dollar and yen are generally soft in rather quiet markets today. Asian stocks rebound strongly with Nikkei up 2.74% and last week's high broken. Crude oil breaks 80 level again and while gold also breaks 1130 level briefly before retreating. The economic calendar is rather light today. Traders will likely hold their bets for the moment and wait for more important events later this week, including Bernanke's semiannual testimony as well as GDP revisions from UK and US.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: USD/CHF - Sell At 1.0830

Dollar retreat after Friday's rise to 1.0899 suggests a temporary top has possibly been formed and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen and as indicated downside target at 1.0743-50 had already been met, test of the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.0704) is under way, however, only a firm breach below support at 1.0647 would confirm and bring correction of recent upmove to next support at 1.0609 later.

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Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell At 1.5600, O.C.O. Buy At 1.5295

Despite Friday's recovery after falling sharply to 1.5345, reckon upside would be limited to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5582) and renewed selling interest should emerge well below the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5665) and bring another decline later. Below said support would extend recent selloff towards 1.5295/00. However, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5272 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3500 to 1.7044) and reckon 1.5245 (61.8% projection of 1.6459 to 1.5535 measuring from 1.5816) would hold, bring a rebound later.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD - Buy At 1.3535

As indicated in our previous update, despite resuming recent decline to as low as 1.3443 last Friday, loss of downward momentum prevented sharp fall below there and the single currency staged a strong rebound, suggesting a temporary low has possibly been formed at 1.3443 and consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain towards the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3721). However, a sustain breach above the upper Kumo is needed to confirm and bring retracement of recent fall towards resistance at 1.3789.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Buy At 90.95

Although dollar has retreated after marginal rise to 92.16 last Friday and consolidation below this level would take place today for minor correction towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 90.93), reckon renewed buying interest would emerge there and bring rebound later. Above said resistance would extend recent gain towards 92.50/60 but overbought condition should limit upside to 93.00 and price should falter well below resistance at 93.78.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 123.80; (P) 124.29; (R1) 125.05; More.

EUR/JPY edged higher to 125.22 today and the break of 124.82 resistance suggests that choppy recovery from 120.69 is still in progress. Further rise might be seen but after all, we're expecting strong resistance at the current 124.73/126.96 to conclude the recovery and bring fall resumption. Below 122.74 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside for a retest on 120.69 low first. Break there will indicate that whole fall from 134.36 has resumed and should target 161.8% projection of 138.47 to 126.88 from 134.36 at 115.60 next. However, note that decisive break of 126.96 will dampen this bearish view and bring stronger rally instead.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 64.25 63.98 +27 +0.42%
AUDJPY 82.45 82.22 +23 +0.28%
NZDUSD 0.7011 0.6992 +19 +0.27%
GBPAUD 1.7178 1.7213 -35 -0.20%
USDJPY 91.65 91.51 +14 +0.15%

Last Updated: Feb 22, 07:20 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 22, 07:20 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
00:30 AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Jan -3.40% -- 3.30%
16:00 USD Fed's Yellen Speaks in San Diego on U.S. Economy -- --
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