Thursday, February 4, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-4-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Firm on Concern of European Debts, BoE and ECB on Hold

Dollar remains firm in early US session as markets are shifting focus to budget woes of Eurozone. Yen also manages to rally against major currencies on weaker stocks and commodities. Euro weakens today on concern that Portugal, Spain and Eastern Europe governments will struggle to fund the budget deficits as their plans for deficit-reduction are "far less ambitious" than that of Greece. ECB left rates unchanged at 1.00% as widely expected.

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Special Report

2010 Currency Outlook: CHF

The SNB was one of the most aggressive central banks in implementing loose monetary policies to fight against the recent recession. Between October 2008 and March 2009, the SNB has reduced the 3-month LIBOR target rate by 250 bps to 0.25%. In March, the central bank also announced a series of liquidity provision programs including additional repo operations and purchases of Swiss franc bonds issued by private sector borrowers. The central bank also declared to purchase foreign currency on the foreign exchange market so as to prevent any further appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Buy On Break Of 127.08

Despite rising to 126.98 yesterday, the single currency failed to penetrate indicated resistance at 127.08 and has retreated, suggesting further consolidation would take place and retest of support at 124.45 cannot be ruled out, break there would signal the final leg of wave v is in progress for weakness towards 123.99 (61.8% projection of 133.65 to 126.55 measuring from 128.38), however, reckon 123.00 (100% projection of 138.49 to 126.95 measuring from 134.54) would hold.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Buy At 0.8740

The Australian did falter below indicated resistance at 0.8928 and has fallen again, suggesting the last leg of wave c is still in progress and whilst weakness towards support at 0.8735 cannot be ruled out, loss of momentum would limit downside to 0.8700 and bring rebound later. Above said resistance would confirm low has been formed and bring stronger rebound towards next resistance at 0.9049.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5819; (P) 1.5944; (R1) 1.6012; More

GBP/USD's break of 1.5829 support confirms that whole decline from 1.6875 has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and further fall should be seen to 1.5706 key cluster support. on the upside, above 1.5918 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring some recovery. But another fall is still expected as long as 1.6067 resistance holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
NZDJPY 62.92 63.86 -94 -1.49%
NZDUSD 0.6951 0.7021 -70 -1.01%
EURJPY 125.20 126.40 -120 -0.96%
AUDJPY 79.58 80.31 -73 -0.92%
GBPJPY 143.47 144.51 -104 -0.72%

Last Updated: Feb 04, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 04, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Employment Change Q/Q Q4 -0.10% -0.10% -0.80%
21:45 NZD Employment Change Y/Y Q4 -2.40% -2.50% -1.80%
21:45 NZD Unemployment Rate Q4 7.30% 6.80% 6.50%
00:30 AUD Retail Sales M/M Dec -0.70% 0.30% 1.40% 1.50%
07:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Dec 1.36B 2.33B 2.14B 1.98B
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders M/M Dec -2.30% 0.20% 2.80% 2.70%
11:00 EUR German Factory Orders Y/Y Dec 8.40% 9.60% 4.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% 0.50%
12:00 GBP BoE Asset Purchase Target 200B 200B 200B
12:45 EUR ECB Interest Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
13:30 EUR ECB Press Conference -- --
13:30 CAD Building Permits M/M Dec 2.40% 3.50% -4.60%
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q4 P 6.20% 5.20% 8.10%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q4 P -4.40% -2.10% -2.50%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 480K 460K 470K
15:00 CAD Ivey PMI Jan 51.8 48.4
15:00 USD Factory Orders Dec 0.90% 1.10%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -123B -86B
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