Yen Rallied on Risk Aversion, Selling Focus Turned to Sterling The Japanese yen staged a strong rally last week on risk aversion as disappointing data from US triggered much concern on the underlying strength of recovery. Continuous worry on Greece's fiscal problem also held investors back from riskier assets in general. However, in spite of all the problems in Greece and talk of Spain, and new record low in speculative short positions, Euro was rather resilient last week, as especially in commodity currency crosses. On the other hand, selling focus seems to have turned to sterling which dropped through recent lows against major currencies, on concern of even worse fiscal situation and economic outlook in UK. Dollar attempted to resume recent rise but failed as pressured by recovery in Euro as well as resilience in commodities. We'd expect some more consolidation in the greenback in near term but overall develop still favors more upside in dollar going ahead. Full Report Here... |
Unchanged Monetary Policy Stance Expected at BoC's Meeting Both market expectations and economic development evolved recently point to an unchanged monetary policy stance at BoC's March meeting. The central bank will most likely announce to keep its policy rate at 0.25% and keep the statement that 'conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target'. Currently, the market anticipates the first rate hike will be in 3Q10 the earliest. Full Report Here... RBA to Pause for a Second Month While RBA' tightening cycle , which began late last year, will continue in 2010, more rate hikes will be delivered in 2H10 as policymakers need to gauge how previous hikes feed through to the economy. We expect the central bank will keep its cash rate unchanged at 3.75% in March. In the minutes for the February meeting, the RBA said the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged was 'finely balanced'. Moreover, the statement 'the widening in the margins between the cash rate and many lending rates, had meant a material adjustment to the stance of monetary policy' indicated RBA's concerns about domestic lending conditions as many commercial banks raised interest rates more than what was guided by the central bank. Full Report Here... |
USD/JPY Weekly Outlook USD/JPY sharp fall from 92.14 last week indicates that rebound from 88.57 is completed and revived the case that whole decline from 93.74 is still in progress. Intraday bias remains on the downside this week for 88.57first. Break will confirm this case and target 87.36 support next. Break there will also confirm that whole from 84.81 was finished and the larger down trend would likely be resuming in such case. On the upside, above 89.50 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But another fall is still in favor as long as 90.35 resistance holds. Read more... All Technical Outlook Reports | Weekly Top Movers | Top 5 | Current | Last | Change
(Pips) | Change
(%) | | GBPJPY | 135.59 | 141.57 | -598 | -4.41% | | CADJPY | 84.53 | 88.04 | -351 | -4.15% | | AUDJPY | 79.63 | 82.22 | -259 | -3.25% | | NZDJPY | 62.07 | 63.98 | -191 | -3.08% | | USDJPY | 88.92 | 91.51 | -259 | -2.91% | Currency Heat Map Weekly View | USD | EUR | JPY | GBP | CHF | CAD | AUD | | USD | | | | | | | | | EUR | | | | | | | | | JPY | | | | | | | | | GBP | | | | | | | | |
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