Thursday, February 25, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 2-26-10

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Action Insight Daily Report

Dollar and Yen Pared Gain on Stocks Recovery, UK and US GDP in Focus

The Japanese yen pared some gains as US stocks rebounded in late session overnight on comments from St. Louis Fed James Bullard that the U.S. economic recovery is "reasonably good." Yen continued the retreat as Asia stocks recover. Dollar also weakened as the dollar index failed below recent high of 81.34 and as crude oil and gold recovered back to above 78 and 1100 levels. Data released from Japan today saw manufacturing PMI unchanged at 52.5 in February. Headline CPI improved to -1.3% yoy in January. Industrial production rose 2.5% mom in January while retail sales rose 2.6%. At this point, there's no change in yen's near term bullish outlook but dollar might continue to lag behind for a while.

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Candlesticks & Ichimoku Analysis

Trade Idea: GBP/USD - Sell at 1.5470 O.C.O. Buy at 1.5110

Although intra-day selloff to 1.5244 (met our indicated downside target at 1.5245 - 61.8% projection of 1.6459 to 1.5535 measuring from 1.5816) signals recent decline remains in progress and further weakness to 1.5200 and possibly 1.5165 (1.236 times projection of 1.6879 to 1.5832 measuring from 1.6459) is likely, loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 1.5105/10 (approx. 50% projection of 1.6277 to 1.5345 measuring from 1.5575) and bring rebound later.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY - Sell At 90.30

As dollar has rebounded after yesterday's selloff to 88.80, suggesting consolidation above this level would take place and above the Tenkan-Sen (now at 89.56 would bring correction towards minor resistance at 90.33-36 (this is also the current level of the Kijun-Sen at 90.35), however, renewed selling interest should emerge there and bring another decline later.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/GBP Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.8800; (P) 0.8846; (R1) 0.8920; More.

EUR/GBP's strong break of 0.8841 resistance indicates that whole rebound from 0.8601 has resumed and revived the case that fall from 0.9410 is finished. Intraday bias is now on the upside for 0.9027 resistance to confirm this bullish case. On the downside below 0.8835 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations but another rise would be in favor as long as 0.8749 support holds. However, break of 0.8749 will turn outlook mixed again and turn focus back to 0.8601/8657 support zone.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDJPY 79.34 80.53 -119 -1.50%
NZDJPY 61.54 62.46 -92 -1.49%
CHFJPY 82.27 83.37 -110 -1.34%
GBPJPY 137.05 138.86 -181 -1.32%
EURJPY 120.44 122.02 -158 -1.31%

Last Updated: Feb 25, 07:00 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 25, 07:00 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Trade Balance NZD Jan 269M -99M 2M -32M
23:15 JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI Feb 52.5 -- 52.5
23:30 JPY National CPI Y/Y Jan -1.30% -1.40% -1.70%
23:30 JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Jan -1.30% -1.30% -1.30%
23:30 JPY Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food Y/Y Feb -1.80% -2.00% -2.00%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production M/M Jan P 2.50% 1.00% 1.90%
23:50 JPY Industrial Production Y/Y Jan P 18.20% 16.50% 5.10%
23:50 JPY Retail Sales Y/Y Jan 2.60% -0.10% -0.30% -0.20%
0:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Feb -14 -17 -17
5:00 JPY Housing Starts Y/Y Jan -8.10% -11.60% -15.70%
9:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.20% 0.10%
9:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q4 P -3.10% -3.20%
9:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Dec 0.30% 0.10%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Jan -0.80% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Jan 1.00% 0.90%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Core CPI Y/Y Jan 1.00% 1.10%
10:30 CHF KOF Leading Indicator Feb 1.8 1.77
13:30 CAD Current Account (CAD) Q4 -8.7B -$13.1B
13:30 USD GDP (Annualized) Q4 P 5.60% 5.70%
13:30 USD GDP Price Index Q4 P 0.60% 0.60%
14:45 USD Chicago PMI Feb 59 61.5
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Feb F 73.9 73.7
15:00 USD Existing Home Sales Jan 5.50M 5.45M
-- EUR German CPI M/M Feb P 0.50% -0.60%
-- EUR German CPI Y/Y Feb P 0.70% 0.80%
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