Friday, February 12, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-12-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Dollar Higher as China Raised Reserve Requirements Again

Dollar rises today on risk aversion as China raised bank reserve requirement for the second time in a month to cool lending. PBoC announced to increase bank's reserve ratio by by +50 bps effective February 25. This is the second time this year the central bank raised banks' reserve ratios as a means to curb lending. On January 12, PBOC increased banks' reserve ratio for the first time since June 2008 as new loans reached a record of RMB 9.59 trillion in 2009. In January, banks in China lent CNY 1.39T, an amount exceeded the total of 4Q09 loans and represented 19% of the CNY 7.5T target set by the government for 2010. Tamer than expected CPI reading in January, by +1.5% yoy, was viewed as a seasonal factor only and it's believed that underlying inflation pressure is still picking up.

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Special Report

2010 Currency Outlook: AUD

In 2009, Australian dollar was the best performer among currencies in advanced economy as the country's economy was more resilient and avoided falling in recession during global financial and economic crisis last year. Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia was the first central bank in the world that increased interest rates 3 times last year.

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 122.30

Although yesterday's retreat after faltering below resistance 124.28 suggests consolidation would be seen, as long as 121.62/66 holds, prospect of another corrective rise remains but break of resistance at 124.28 is needed to signal low has been formed and bring retracement of recent decline to 125.00.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Sell At 0.9000

Although the Australian dollar rose to 0.8921 yesterday and stronger retracement of recent decline cannot be ruled out, however, upside should be limited to 0.9012 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9280-0.8578), and bring retreat later today or early next week.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3591; (P) 1.3696; (R1) 1.3797; More.

EUR/USD's break of 1.3585 confirms that recent down trend has resumed. Intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 next. On the upside, above 1.3695 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral but short term outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.3838 resistance holds.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
AUDUSD 0.8838 0.8902 -64 -0.72%
EURUSD 1.3594 1.3692 -98 -0.72%
USDCHF 1.0777 1.0703 +74 +0.69%
USDJPY 90.34 89.76 +58 +0.64%
AUDCAD 0.9289 0.9348 -59 -0.64%

Last Updated: Feb 12, 13:45 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 12, 13:45 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD Retail Sales M/M Dec 0.00% 0.70% 0.80%
05:00 JPY Households Confidence Jan 39 38.2 37.6
07:00 EUR German GDP Q/Q Q4 P 0.00% 0.20% 0.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Q/Q Q4 A 0.10% 0.30% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone GDP Y/Y Q4 A -2.10% -1.90% -4.00%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production M/M Dec -1.70% 0.10% 1.00% 1.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial Production Y/Y Dec -5.00% -1.70% -7.10% -6.90%
13:30 CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M Dec 2.60% 2.00% -6.00%
13:30 USD Advance Retail Sales Jan 0.50% 0.30% -0.30%
13:30 USD Retail Sales Less Autos Jan 0.60% 0.40% -0.20%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Feb P 74.8 74.4
15:00 USD Business Inventories Dec 0.40% 0.40%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -176B -115B
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.4M 2.3M
Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

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