Thursday, February 18, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 2-18-10

ActionForex.com
Action Insight Mid-Day Report

Yen Climbs as Jobless Claims Rose, Dollar Steady

Yen rises in early US session after worse than expected jobless claim which rose back to 473k. Dollar remains firm, though, against European majors, supported by stronger than expected PPI reading which rose 1.4% mom, 4.6% yoy with core PPI up 0.3% mom, 1.0% yoy. Canadian dollar is trying to regain some ground after stronger than expected core CPI reading. Headline CPI rose 0.3% mom, 1.9% yoy in January, inline with expectation. Core CPI rose 0.1% mom, 2.0% yoy versus consensus of 0.0% mom, 1.9% yoy. Euro was soft against dollar and yen, as well as against commodity currencies. German Chancellor Angela Merkel slammed the "scandal" of banks helping Greece massage its deficit, saying the nation "falsified its statistics for years."

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Elliott Wave Analysis

Trade Idea: EUR/JPY - Hold Long Entered At 123.50

The single currency retreated sharply after rising to 124.85 yesterday, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 123.50 and 122.90/00 must hold for prospect of another rise later. Above 124.33/35 would signal the retreat from 124.85 has ended and bring test of said resistance at 124.85, once this level is penetrated, this would confirm the wave v of larger degree c leg has ended at 120.70, hence further gain towards 125.50 and later towards resistance at 126.98 would follow.

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Trade Idea: AUD/USD - Stand Aside

Although the Australian dollar retreated after rising to 0.9037 yesterday and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for weakness towards 0.8860/65 (approx. 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8578 to 0.9037) is likely, a firm break below there is needed to revive our bearish view that wave iv has possibly ended at 0.9037 and extend weakness to 0.8808 (50% Fibonacci retracement), then test of 0.8786.

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Featured Technical Report Market Highlights

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3529; (P) 1.3659; (R1) 1.3732; More.

At this point, intraday bias in EUR/USD remains on the downside and further decline is still expected. Break of 1.3531 support will confirm that recent fall has resumed and should target 61.8% retracement of 1.2329 to 1.5143 at 1.3404 and then 161.8% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3076 next. On the upside, above 1.3635 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral again. Also, note that break of 1.3788 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Strong rebound should then be seen to 1.4025 resistance or above.

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Daily Top Movers

Top 5 Current Last Change
(Pips)
Change
(%)
GBPJPY 141.01 142.99 -198 -1.40%
NZDJPY 63.35 64.19 -84 -1.33%
AUDJPY 81.17 82.05 -88 -1.08%
EURJPY 122.79 124.12 -133 -1.08%
CHFJPY 83.84 84.59 -75 -0.89%

Last Updated: Feb 18, 13:50 GMT

Currency Heat Map Daily View

USD EUR JPY GBP CHF CAD AUD
USD
EUR
JPY
GBP

Last Updated: Feb 18, 13:50 GMT

Economic Indicators Update
GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
03:45 JPY BoJ Interest Rate Decision 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
07:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Jan 2.42B 1.79B 1.36B
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Jan 4.3B -2.4B 15.7B
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply M/M Jan P 0.60% 0.60% -1.10%
09:30 GBP M4 Money Supply Y/Y Jan P 5.10% 4.60% 6.40% 6.60%
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Feb 52.5 -- 56.2
11:00 GBP U.K. CBI Industrial Trends Feb -36 -35 -39
12:00 CAD CPI M/M Jan 0.30% 0.30% -0.30%
12:00 CAD CPI Y/Y Jan 1.90% 1.90% 1.30%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core M/M Jan 0.10% 0.00% -0.30%
12:00 CAD BoC CPI Core Y/Y Jan 2.00% 1.90% 1.50%
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Dec 11.23B 7.21B 10.54B
13:30 USD PPI M/M Jan 1.40% 0.80% 0.20%
13:30 USD PPI Y/Y Jan 4.60% 4.40% 4.40%
13:30 USD PPI Core M/M Jan 0.30% 0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD PPI Core Y/Y Jan 1.00% 0.80% 0.90%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 473K 448K 440K
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Feb 17 15.2
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Jan 0.50% 1.10%
16:00 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.5M 2.4M
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -185B -191B
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