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Daily Report: USD/JPY Spiked Briefly, Aussie Strong on China DataUSD/JPY spiked above 81 level earlier today after making new 15 year low at 80.29. Nevertheless, the strength was brief and USD/JPY is now back trading around 80.4/5 level. There were talk of Japan intervention but the Finance Ministry declined to comment. The price actions also suggested it wasn't intervention the triggered the move and markets chat suggests it'd probably be a miss-hit or technical glitch in illiquid condition. USD/JPY is still on course to test record low of 79.5 set in 1995 and at least have a brief breach. |
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USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.15; (P) 80.61; (R1) 80.85; More. USD/JPY spikes higher after hitting new 15 year low of 80.29 earlier today but quickly drops back to 80.50 level. A temporary low might be in place and we'd see some sideway trading first. But still, outlook remains bearish with 81.97 resistance intact and current down trend is expected to continue further. Below 80.29 will target 79.75 low next. On the upside, as noted before, break of 81.97 resistance is needed to confirm bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
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BOJ To Accelerate Easing Depending On Fed's Move. RBA, ECB, BOE Stays SidelinedThe BOJ announced to bring forward the November meeting to November 4-5, from November 15-16. While Governor said the move is for discussion on the principal terms and conditions for the purchases of ETFs and J-REITs and has nothing to do with Fed's QE, it's obvious that the BOJ would implement additional stimulus should the Fed announce easing measures that would lift the yen significantly higher. We expect the move is likely and increases in the scale of the asset purchases in longer-term JGBs are possible measures. Fed to Spark QE2, What Options Does it Have?The Fed is almost certain to announce QE2 at the November FOMC meeting. Indeed, comments from Fed officials in recent weeks have indicated further accommodations are required to bring inflation and employment back to levels the FOMC sees as consistent with its dual mandate. We expect policymakers are inclined to a more gradual approach of monetary easing, i.e. to purchase long-term Treasury securities of around $100B per month, without upper limit on the total amount and being reviewed on every FOMC meeting. At the same time, the Fed may modify the language used in the accompanying statement as Chairman Ben Bernanke said at the Boston Fed conference that he would examine ways to achieve greater easing through a new communication strategy. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3900Despite initial brief drop to 1.3894, as renewed buying interest emerge there and has rallied again, suggesting near term bullishness remains for the rise from 1.3734 to extend further gain to 1.4020/30, however, as broad outlook is still consolidative, upside would be limited and price should falter well below previous resistance at 1.4080, bring retreat later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5995Outlook is similar to euro, although the British pound slipped initially to 1.5995, renewed buying interest emerged there and cable has risen again, adding credence to our recent bullishness for the rise from 1.5650 to extend further gain, however, near term overbought condition should prevent sharp move beyond previous resistance at 1.6108 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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