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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Retreats after Weak Inflation and Housing DataDollar retreats mildly in early US session after weaker than expected inflation and housing data. Headline CPI rose slightly to 1.2% yoy in October versus expectation of 1.3% yoy while core CPI dropped to 0.6% yoy versus expectation of 0.7%. New residential construction data were weak with housing starts dropped sharply by -11.7% to 519k annualized rate in October, lowest level in 18 months. Building permits rose slightly to 550k annualized rate, missing expectation of 570k. Dollar's rebound is somewhat losing some steam as dollar index approaches 80 key resistance level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9865; (P) 0.9921; (R1) 1.0014; More. USD/CHF retreats mildly after a brief break of 0.9970 resistance but still, with 0.9870 minor support intact, intraday bias remains on the upside and further rise is still expected. Current rebound from 0.9462 should target 100% projection of 0.9462 to 0.9970 from 0.9547 at 1.0055 next and break will target 1.0330 key cluster resistance then. On the downside, below 0.9870 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. But break of 0.9547 is needed to signal that fall from 1.1729 has resumed. Otherwise, we'll stay neutral first in such case. |
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| Special Reports |
BOE Split 3 Ways for a Second Month. Recovery in the Job Market May Not SustainSame as a month ago, the BOE split 3 ways on monetary policy in November as stubbornly-high inflation and sluggish economic growth presented a conflicting situation for policymakers. 7 out of 9 members voted for keeping the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset-buying program at 200B program. 2 members voted against it. While Adam Posen preferred to maintain the policy rate at 0.5% and increase the size of the asset purchase program by +50B pound to a total of 250B pound, Andrew Sentance preferred an increase in Bank Rate of +25bps and to maintain the size of the asset purchase program at 200B pound. |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5950Although cable has retreated after faltering below the Kijun-Sen, break of yesterday's low at 1.5840 is needed to confirm the decline from 1.6300 top has resumed and extend weakness to 1.5810/15 (1.618 times projection of 1.6185 to 1.6015 measuring from 1.6087), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.5798 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5296 to 1.6300) and price should stay well above previous support at 1.5731 Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3560Although euro has retreated again after intra-day brief bounce to 1.3527, break of yesterday's low at 1.3446 is needed to extend recent decline from 1.4283 top to 1.3436 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2588 to 1.4283), then 1.3422 (50% projection of 1.4283 to 1.3573 measuring from 1.3777), however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.3380/85 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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