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Daily Report: Dollar Soft Ahead of NFP, BoJ Detailed ETF, J-Reit PurchasesDollar remains soft as traders are now turning their focus to Non-Farm Payroll report today. Markets are expecting 63k expansion in the overall in the job market in October while unemployment rate is expected to be steady at 9.6%. The greenback was sold off after Fed announce the $600b QE2 program earlier this week and is vulnerable to further selling if today's employment data disappoints. Persistently weak job market in US will further fuel speculations of QE3 down the road when QE2 completes next June. Pending home sales in US will also be released and is expected to rise 9.6% mom in September. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3531; (P) 1.3668; (R1) 1.3751; More The sharp fall from 1.3833 argues that EUR/CHF rebound from 1.2765 is possibly finished already on bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD. Intraday bias is cautiously on the downside for the moment for 1.3492 support first. Break there will add much credence to this bearish case and target a retest on 1.2765 low. On the upside, above 1.3685 will dampen this view and suggests that rise from 1.2765 is possibly still in progress. But still, even in case of another rise, we'd expect strong resistance around 1.4 psychological level to limit upside and bring reversal. |
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BOJ Announces Details On ETFs And J-Reits PurchasesDespite numerous speculations that the BOJ would accelerate easing measures after it brought forward the date of the November meeting, policymakers only disclosed more details on how it will invest money in an asset-buying program announced in October. BOJ's inaction to Fed's $600B QE plan indicates policymakers are not worried about its impact on Japanese yen. Yet, we believe the central bank will monitor currency movements in coming months and intervene should appreciation in Japanese yen be excessive. ECB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged. Accompanying Statement More HawkishThe Fed announced to buy $600B of US Treasury securities by the end of June 2011. Compared with consensus of $500 over 6 month s (around $80B/month), the total size of the program is bigger. However, as it covers 8 months, the purchase every month is only around $75B/month. If we take into account Fed's tentative reinvestment in MBS proceeds, the total level of Treasury purchases will average close to $110B/month, totaling $880B through June 2011. The Fed also made notable changes in the accompanying statement. In the concluding paragraph, policymakers will employ tools to help ensure that inflation is 'at levels consistent with its mandate'. We believe the program is inline with market expectations and recent decline in USD has largely priced in the measures. Fed Announces To Buy $600B Of Bonds Through 2Q11The Fed announced to buy $600B of US Treasury securities by the end of June 2011. Compared with consensus of $500 over 6 month s (around $80B/month), the total size of the program is bigger. However, as it covers 8 months, the purchase every month is only around $75B/month. If we take into account Fed's tentative reinvestment in MBS proceeds, the total level of Treasury purchases will average close to $110B/month, totaling $880B through June 2011. The Fed also made notable changes in the accompanying statement. In the concluding paragraph, policymakers will employ tools to help ensure that inflation is 'at levels consistent with its mandate'. We believe the program is inline with market expectations and recent decline in USD has largely priced in the measures. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9650Yesterday's selloff signals recent decline from 0.9972 is still in progress and weakness towards previous support at 0.9541 is under way, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.9500 and recent low at 0.9463 should remain intact. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.4105As the single currency has retreated after rising to 1.4283 yesterday, suggesting consolidation below this level would take place and the break of the Kijun-Sen suggests retracement to 1.4120/25 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3864 to 1.4283), however, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.4105) and bring another rise later. Above 1.4245/50 would signal the pullback from 1.4283 has ended and bring resumption of upmove Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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