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Daily Report: Trading Slows with US on HolidayTrading activities slow much as US will be on thanksgiving holiday today. Sentiments in the markets are calm with Asian equities recovering further following solid gain of 150pts in DOW overnight. However, momentum is so far mild as investors are troubled by speculation of more tightening measures from China. PBoC adviser Xia Bin said that China would use a combination of higher rates and bank reserve requirement to control liquidity. On the other hand, deputy governor Hu Xialian said quantitative and price tolls would be used too. There are rumors that China will raise inflation target to 4% next year as it's now impractical to maintain inflation at 3%. And China would possibly accelerate monetary tightening in near term as inflation threatens to break 5% level by the end of the year. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9739; (P) 0.9795; (R1) 0.9874; More Outlook in AUD/USD remains neutral for the moment. Note again that recent up trend could still continue with 0.9651 cluster support intact (38.2% retracement of 0.8770 to 1.0181 at 0.9642) holds. Above 0.9953 resistance will flip bias back to the upside for 1.0181 and possibly above. However, decisive break of 0.9642/51 will complete a head and shoulder top reversal pattern and will turn outlook bearish for decline towards 0.9404 key support level. |
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| Featured Technical Report |
Portugal May Be The Next To Seek EU Bailout, Following Greece And IrelandIreland's request for funding from EU/ECB/IMF fails to ease fear of contagion to peripheral European economies. Portugal is regarded by bond market investors and economists as the next country to be bailed out, after Greece and Ireland. Despite José Sócrates', Portuguese prime minister's, pledge that 'Portugal doesn't need anyone's help and will solve its own problems' and the European Commission's affirmation that 'there are no analogies to be made. As the Irish case is very specific', Portuguese CDS continued to surge. Yield spreads between Portuguese bonds and German bunds also widened. While Portugal does not have immediate need for money and it fiscal status is better than many of its neighbors, a bailout depends highly on the risks of contagion. In our opinion, the problem in Portugal is different from Ireland. The root problem is the lack of growth and structural weakness for the former while that for the latter is the outsized banking sector. |
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Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold long entered at 1.5770As the British pound has remained under pressure after yesterday's brief rebound from 1.5742, suggesting caution on our long position entered at 1.5770 and said support needs to hold to retain near term bullish prospect for another corrective rebound. Above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.5789) would bring recovery to the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.5828), then towards 1.5870/75 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3430Despite euro's retreat after meeting renewed selling interest at 1.3422, break of yesterday's low at 1.3284 is needed to confirm recent decline has resumed and extend weakness to 1.3245/50 (50% projection of 1.3633 to 1.3284 measuring from 1.3422) but reckon 1.3205/10 (61.8% projection) would hold from here due to loss of near term downward momentum, bring rebound later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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