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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Rebounds on Solid NFP, Euro Pressured by Peripheral WorriesDollar rebounds against most major currencies today as supported by solid employment data from US. Non-farm payroll showed job market in US expected much more than expected by 151k in October. Prior month's contraction was also revised from -95k to -41k. Unemployment rate, on the other hand, was steady at 9.6% as expected. Canadian job data was mixed, showing less then expected growth of 3k in October even though unemployment rate dipped from 8.0% to 7.9%. Canada building permits, though, rose strongly by 15.3% mom in September. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.48; (P) 80.85; (R1) 81.12; More. USD/JPY rebounds strongly in early US session but after all it's still kept below 81.97 resistance. Intraday bias remains neutral for the moment but after decline is still expected with 81.97 resistance intact. Below 90.29 will target 79.75 low next. Nevertheless, note that decisive break of 81.97 resistance will be indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring rebound to 82.86/85.92 resistance zone. |
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BOJ Announces Details On ETFs And J-Reits PurchasesDespite numerous speculations that the BOJ would accelerate easing measures after it brought forward the date of the November meeting, policymakers only disclosed more details on how it will invest money in an asset-buying program announced in October. BOJ's inaction to Fed's $600B QE plan indicates policymakers are not worried about its impact on Japanese yen. Yet, we believe the central bank will monitor currency movements in coming months and intervene should appreciation in Japanese yen be excessive. ECB Leaves Policy Rate Unchanged. Accompanying Statement More HawkishThe Fed announced to buy $600B of US Treasury securities by the end of June 2011. Compared with consensus of $500 over 6 month s (around $80B/month), the total size of the program is bigger. However, as it covers 8 months, the purchase every month is only around $75B/month. If we take into account Fed's tentative reinvestment in MBS proceeds, the total level of Treasury purchases will average close to $110B/month, totaling $880B through June 2011. The Fed also made notable changes in the accompanying statement. In the concluding paragraph, policymakers will employ tools to help ensure that inflation is 'at levels consistent with its mandate'. We believe the program is inline with market expectations and recent decline in USD has largely priced in the measures. Fed Announces To Buy $600B Of Bonds Through 2Q11The Fed announced to buy $600B of US Treasury securities by the end of June 2011. Compared with consensus of $500 over 6 month s (around $80B/month), the total size of the program is bigger. However, as it covers 8 months, the purchase every month is only around $75B/month. If we take into account Fed's tentative reinvestment in MBS proceeds, the total level of Treasury purchases will average close to $110B/month, totaling $880B through June 2011. The Fed also made notable changes in the accompanying statement. In the concluding paragraph, policymakers will employ tools to help ensure that inflation is 'at levels consistent with its mandate'. We believe the program is inline with market expectations and recent decline in USD has largely priced in the measures. |
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Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.4155Current selloff on dollar's broad-based rebound after the release of solid U.S. job data suggests recent upmove has formed a top at 1.4283 yesterday and consolidation with downside bias is seen for correction of recent upmove to 1.4005/10 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3734 to 1.4283) and possibly test of previous support at 1.3991. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.90Current rebound in reaction to the release of stronger-than-expected NFP data suggests a test of 81.59/60 resistance would be seen, break there would confirm a temporary low has been formed at 80.21 earlier and bring retracement of recent decline towards previous resistance at 81.99. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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