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Daily Report: Dollar Extends Pullback and Sentiments Further StabilizeDollar weakens in today as sentiments further stabilizes. Asian equities are mostly up after the sharp selloff this week. Nikkei leads the way by rising over 2% to close above 10,000 psychological level for the first time in 5 months, powered by sharp gains in financial shares. Ireland worries are temporary off the table as the government will hold talks with EU, IMF and ECB officials over a number of days, with focus on the financial system. The EU, ECB and IMF team will scan the books of Ireland's debt-laden banks to determine whether the government can fix the banking system on its own or needs to fall back on the European Financial Stability Fund. There are speculations that Ireland would eventually accept some sort of aid package within two weeks time. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9736; (P) 0.9785; (R1) 0.9845; More With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, a temporary low is in place at 0.9724 in AUD/USD and intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment. While another fall cannot be ruled out, we'd still expect strong support at 0.9651 cluster support next (38.2% retracement of 0.8770 to 1.0181 at 0.9642) to contain downside and bring rebound. On the upside, above 0.9919 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1.0181 is finished and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting 1.0181 resistance first. However, However, decisive break of 0.9651 will argue that whole rally from 0.8066 is finished and will turn focus to 0.9404 key support instead. |
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| Special Reports |
BOE Split 3 Ways for a Second Month. Recovery in the Job Market May Not SustainSame as a month ago, the BOE split 3 ways on monetary policy in November as stubbornly-high inflation and sluggish economic growth presented a conflicting situation for policymakers. 7 out of 9 members voted for keeping the Bank rate unchanged at 0.5% and the asset-buying program at 200B program. 2 members voted against it. While Adam Posen preferred to maintain the policy rate at 0.5% and increase the size of the asset purchase program by +50B pound to a total of 250B pound, Andrew Sentance preferred an increase in Bank Rate of +25bps and to maintain the size of the asset purchase program at 200B pound. |
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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3600Although present break of the Ichimoku cloud top on dollar's broad-based retreat suggests near term upside risk remains for a stronger retracement to 1.3612 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3777 to 1.3446), reckon 1.3630 (100% projection of 1.3446 to 1.3566 measuring from 1.3510) would hold and bring retreat later. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5995Cable's near term sideways trading is expected to continue and dollar's retreat elsewhere suggests near term upside risk is for a retracement to 1.5980/85 (previous support), however, reckon 1.6013-16 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6185 to 1.5840 and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5840) would hold, bring another decline later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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