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Mid-Day Report: Markets Steady, Sterling and Aussie Mildly FirmerDollar recovers mildly after initial weakness in an otherwise, steady markets. The surprised moves are found in yen crosses but there is no follow through selling then yen. Sterling is lifted mildly by better than expected PMI manufacturing data but again. Aussie was lifted by solid manufacturing data from China. But after all, the gains in Sterling and Aussie are so far limited. Traders' and investors' minds are dominated by the string of event risks later in the week and are holding their bets for the moment. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
GBP/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.5928; (P) 1.5986; (R1) 1.6096; More. Intraday bias in GBP/USD remains on the upside with 1.5977 minor support intact. Further rise should be seen to 1.6104 resistance next. Break there will confirm rally resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 1.5296 to 1.6104 from 1.5649 at 1.6148 and then 100% projection at 1.6457. On the downside, below 1.5977 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral. But break of 1.5649 support is needed to confirm topping. Otherwise, another rally will remain mildly in favor. |
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| Special Reports |
BOJ To Accelerate Easing Depending On Fed's Move. RBA, ECB, BOE Stays SidelinedThe BOJ announced to bring forward the November meeting to November 4-5, from November 15-16. While Governor said the move is for discussion on the principal terms and conditions for the purchases of ETFs and J-REITs and has nothing to do with Fed's QE, it's obvious that the BOJ would implement additional stimulus should the Fed announce easing measures that would lift the yen significantly higher. We expect the move is likely and increases in the scale of the asset purchases in longer-term JGBs are possible measures. Fed to Spark QE2, What Options Does it Have?The Fed is almost certain to announce QE2 at the November FOMC meeting. Indeed, comments from Fed officials in recent weeks have indicated further accommodations are required to bring inflation and employment back to levels the FOMC sees as consistent with its dual mandate. We expect policymakers are inclined to a more gradual approach of monetary easing, i.e. to purchase long-term Treasury securities of around $100B per month, without upper limit on the total amount and being reviewed on every FOMC meeting. At the same time, the Fed may modify the language used in the accompanying statement as Chairman Ben Bernanke said at the Boston Fed conference that he would examine ways to achieve greater easing through a new communication strategy. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5990As the British pound has retreated after intra-day marginal rise to 1.6090, suggesting minor top is formed and consolidation below this level would take place with mild downside bias for retracement to 1.5989-95 (current level of the Kijun-Sen and intra-day support) but reckon 1.5979 (previous resistance) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Sell at 81.20Although the greenback is still weak, a breach of intra-day support at 80.21 is needed to signal downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to psychological support at 80.00, however, loss of near term downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below the record low at 79.75. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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