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Daily Report: Dollar Firm on Risk Aversion and YieldDollar is a bit firmer today as Asian equities are generally soft following following the 25bps rate hike from Bank of South Korea. The bank raised benchmark seven-day repurchase rate to 2.5% as inflation breached its tolerance range of 2-4% and hit 4.1% in October. There is additional support to the greenback as treasury yield extended recent rise overnight. In particular, yield on 10 year notes breached 2.83 resistance and closed strongly at 2.91%. Current development in price actions suggests that dollar's rebound is not finished yet and the dollar index is still on its course towards 80 key psychological level. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
AUD/USD Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9803; (P) 0.9861; (R1) 0.9910; More AUD/USD's pull back from 1.0181 is still in progress and intraday bias remains on the downside for further decline towards 0.9651 cluster support next (38.2% retracement of 0.8770 to 1.0181 at 0.9642). However, downside should be contained there, which is close to 55 days EMA (now at 0.9674) and bring up trend resumption. Above 0.9919 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside for 1.0181 and above. However, decisive break of 0.9651 will argue that whole rally from 0.8066 is finished and will turn focus to 0.9404 key support instead. |
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| Special Reports |
RBA Unlikely Hikes Rates In The Near-TermThe RBA released the November minutes, citing the surprising rate hike of +25 bps was a forward-looking decision and macroeconomic developments suggested tightening was warranted. Policymakers considered rate hike was finely balanced. We believe it's unlikely for the central bank to tighten again in the near-term. Indeed, the minutes provided no hints that further adjustment was considered although 'the medium-term economic outlook remained one of strengthening economic activity and gradually rising inflation'. Will Ireland Eventually Seek Bailout?Sovereign crisis in peripheral European economies is again under the spotlight as the hottest discussion over the weekend was whether Ireland will request a bailout from the EU. Yield spreads between periphery bonds and German bunds narrowed last Friday after rumors saying Ireland may tap funds from the EU/IMF to avoid bankruptcy. The IMF said it hasn't received any kind of request from Ireland but it's ready to provide any support to the country if it needs. The rumors were denied by the Irish government over the weekend. According to a Finance Ministry official, while 'ongoing contacts continue at official level with international colleagues in light of current market conditions, Ireland has made no application for external support'. The official added that the government is 'fully funded till well into 2011'. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9785Dollar's near term sideways trading below yesterday's high of 0.9872 is likely to continue and although retracement to 0.9800 cannot be ruled out, renewed buying interest should emerge around the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 0.9781) and bring another rise. Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6120Although the British pound has recovered after intra-day marginal fall to 1.6029 and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for possible bounce to the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.6107), however, reckon renewed selling interest would emerge below 1.6125 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6185 to 1.6029) and bring another decline. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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