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Mid-Day Report: Euro Recovers as Ireland Bailout Denied, But Risk Aversion Still DominatesEuro dived sharply earlier today on rumors that Ireland is on verge of a EUR 80b bailout from EU and IMF. There were news flowing around about informal contacts between Brussels, Dublin and Berlin about activation of the EU bailout funds as yield on Irish 10 year government bonds continue to make record highs beyond 9%. Irish Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said that the high borrowing costs created a "very serious" situation. But the finance ministry denied the rumor. Markets are also concerned as Germany would move to force private investors to share the burden in future bailout of countries in fiscal problems. Though, investors were comforted by a joint statement by UK, France, Germany, Italy and Spain that “any new (bailout) mechanism would only come into effect after mid-2013 with no impact whatsoever on the current arrangements”. Euro manages to recover from intraday low afterwards. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3595; (P) 1.3708 (R1) 1.3779; More. EUR/USD recovers after diving to as low as 1.3573 earlier today but still, with 1.3820 minor resistance intact, intraday bias remains on the downside and further decline is still expected to 1.3330 key support level next. On the upside, above 1.3820 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and bring recovery. But after all, break of 1.4281 is needed to confirm up trend resumption. Otherwise, risk remains on the downside for another fall as consolidations continue. |
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Fed Unlikely Changes Easing Stance Despite G20 PressuresFed's re-entry to QE sparked risk appetite and sent financial markets, including equities, growth currencies, bonds and commodities, higher. While investors were thrilled amid anticipations that liquidity injections will boost economic recovery in the US, Fed's move has attracted many criticisms. Renowned economists and financial officials commented Fed's QE will not revive US' economy but has the risks of jeopardizing global growth. Emerging countries such as China and Brazil also worried about excessive capital inflows from overseas. Despite the criticisms, we believe the Fed will extend the easing measures should the current program fail to bring inflation and employment back to desired levels. Heightened disagreements among global markets indicate the upcoming G-20 meeting will again fail to resolve currency tensions. |
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Trade Idea Update: USD/JPY – Hold long entered at 81.85Lack of follow through buying after the breaking Ichimoku cloud top suggests consolidation would continue but as long as support at 81.64 holds, mild upside bias remains and break of yesterday's high of would bring another test of resistance at 82.80, above there would extend recent rise from 80.21 low for a stronger retracement of early decline to 83.20/25 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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