Thursday, November 18, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-18-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Sentiments Lifted by Ireland Optimism, Dollar Drops Further

Market sentiments are lifted as Ireland finally signaled that they will seek assistance from EU and IMF. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan said after a meeting with EU/IMF officials. Lenihan said that "if these talks were to result in a substantial contingency capital funding" pool, it would be a "very desirable outcome". No agreement is reached yet and Lenihan emphasized that deposits in the country's banks remained safe and covered by the government's guarantees. Nevertheless, the message is seen as the first signal that Ireland is finally conceding the possibility of bailout. Major European stocks indices are higher with FTSE and DAX up more than 1% while CAC rises more than 2%. Dollar is broadly lower with dollar index dips to as low as 78.43 so far. Strong rebound is also seen in gold.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5857; (P) 1.5902; (R1) 1.5951; More.

GBP/USD's rebound from 1.5838 accelerates further to as high as 1.6028 so far and at this point, intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for 1.6182 resistance. Break there will confirm that pull back from 1.6298 is finished at 1.5848 after drawing support from near term rising trend line. In such case, recent rally should be resuming for another high above 1.6298. On the downside, below 1.5838 will bring another fall. But after all, we'd still expect strong support from 1.5649 to contain downside and bring rebound.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD PPI Inputs Q/Q Q3 0.70% 0.30% 1.40%
21:45 NZD PPI Outputs Q/Q Q3 1.20% 0.60% 1.10%
07:15 CHF Trade Balance (CHF) Oct 2.10B 1.40B 1.69B 1.68B
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Oct 0.30% 0.20% 0.00% -0.30%
09:30 GBP Major Banks Mortgage Approvals Oct 44K -- 44K 47K
09:30 GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing (GBP) Oct 9.8B 8.9B 15.6B
10:00 EUR Eurozone Current Account (EUR) Sep -13.1B -2.2B -7.5B -6.9B
10:00 CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) Nov -30.9 -- -27.5
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Sep 12.25B 9.21B 11.090B
13:30 CAD Wholesale Sales M/M Sep 0.40% 0.10% 1.20%
13:30 CAD Leading Indicators M/M Oct 0.20% 0.00% -0.10%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 439K 440K 435K
15:00 USD Philadelphia Fed. Survey Nov 5 1
15:00 USD Leading Indicators Oct 0.50% 0.30%
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage 11B 19B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Buy at 1.5950

Cable's intra-day euro-led rally signals near term rise from 1.5840 would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.6042 (previous support), however, reckon 1.6070 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5840) would limit upside and minor resistance at 1.6087 should hold, bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea Update: USD/CHF – Sell at 0.9920

Dollar's sustained breach of the Ichimoku cloud bottom suggests near term downside bias remains for the fall from 0.9977 top to bring retracement of recent upmove to 0.9825-29 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9672-0.9977, previous support as well as 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9588 to 0.9977), however, reckon 0.9783/87 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9588 to 0.9977 and previous resistance) would contain weakness.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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