Monday, November 8, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 11-9-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Yen Mildly Higher on China's Plan to Curb Hot Money Flow

Yen in generally higher in Asia today on news that China has announced new measures to curb hot money inflow amid US QE2 worries. The new rules announced by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange include stricter management of quotas for use of short term foreign debts and oversight of fund repatriation by Chinese companies. In addition, there will be controls on equity investments by foreign companies in China. The news triggered mild retreat in stocks and helped lift yen a bit.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 80.98; (P) 81.20; (R1) 81.41; More.

USD/JPY is still bounded in triangle consolidations for the moment and intraday bias remains neutral. After all, outlook remains bearish with 81.97 resistance intact and recent down trend is still expected to resume sooner or later. Below 80.29 will target 79.75 low next. However, decisive break of 81.97 resistance will be indicate that a short term bottom is at least formed and bring rebound to 82.86/85.92 resistance zone.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD Y/Y Oct 2.70% 2.80% 2.80%
23:50 JPY Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust Oct -1.90% -- -1.80%
23:50 JPY Current Account Total (JPY) Sep 1.66T 1.23T 1.18T
0:01 GBP RICS House Price Balance Oct -49% -39% -36%
0:01 GBP BRC Retail Sales Monitor Nov 0.80% -- 0.50%
0:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence Oct 8 -- 10
5:00 JPY Eco Watchers Survey: Current Oct 40.2 41.7 41.2
6:45 CHF SECO Consumer Confidence Oct 7 17 16
7:00 EUR German CPI M/M Oct F 0.10% 0.10% 0.10%
7:00 EUR German CPI Y/Y Oct F 1.30% 1.30% 1.30%
9:30 GBP Visible Trade Balance (GBP) Sep -7.9B -8.2B
9:30 GBP Industrial Production M/M Sep 0.40% 0.30%
9:30 GBP Industrial Production Y/Y Sep 3.60% 4.20%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production M/M Sep 0.30% 0.30%
9:30 GBP Manufacturing Production Y/Y Sep 6.00% 6.00%
13:30 CAD New Housing Price Index M/M Sep 0.50% 0.10%
15:00 USD Wholesale Inventories Sep 0.60% 0.80%
20:00 CAD BoC Governor Mark Carney Speaks -- --
-- GBP NIESR GDP Estimate Oct -- 0.50%
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.6210

Despite intra-day brief fall to 1.6067, the subsequent quick rebound from there suggests the decline from 1.6300 (last week's top) has formed a temporary low there and consolidation with mild upside bias would be seen for recovery to 1.6180/85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6300 to 1.6067), however, renewed selling interest should emerge around 1.6210/15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) and bring another decline.

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Trade Idea: USD/JPY – Buy at 80.65

Although dollar has recovered after intra-day fall to 80.71, above the Kijun-Sen (now at 81.04) is needed to suggest low has possibly been formed, break of 81.23 minor resistance would confirm and then another rebound to 81.48 would follow but break of strong resistance at 81.59/60 is needed to retain bullishness and confirm a temporary low has been formed at 80.21 earlier

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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