Wednesday, November 10, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-10-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Breaks 82 on Yield, Sterling Up on BoE Inflation Report

Dollar extends yesterday's recovery again yen and break 82 near term resistance level. Climbing treasury yield is one of the factors that boost USD/JPY pair. In addition, yen is pressured by news that China sold nearly JPY 730b of Japanese sovereign debt in September, following the record JPY 2.02T sales in August. In any case, all eyes will be on the $16b sale of 30 year bonds in US afternoon and further jump in treasury yield will fuel stronger rally in USD/JPY.

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Featured Technical Report

USD/JPY Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 80.83; (P) 81.39; (R1) 82.26; More.

USD/JPY's rally extends further to as high as 82.41 in early US session and the strong break of 81.97 resistance confirms that a short term bottom is at least formed in 80.29. Intraday bias is back on the upside and further rise should be seen to 55 days EMA (now at 82.89). Break will target key cluster resistance level at 85.92 (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89). On the downside, below 81.62 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat. But risk will now remain on the upside as long as 80.29 support holds.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:30 AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence Nov -5.30% -- 3.30%
0:30 AUD Home Loans Sep 1.30% 1.00% 1.00% 1.10%
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Households Oct 40.9 40.6 41.2
10:30 GBP BoE Quarterly Inflation Report -- --
13:30 CAD Trade Balance (CAD) Sep -1.5B -1.3B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Sep -$45.0B -$46.3B
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Oct 1.20% -0.30%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 450K 457K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories 1.1M 2.0M
17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage 24B 67B
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Oct -$152.0B -$176.4B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3880

Although the single currency has remained under pressure, break of intra-day support at 1.3735 is needed to signal the decline from 1.4283 top has once again resumed and extend weakness to 1.3690-97 (61.8% projection of 1.4283 to 1.3823 measuring from 1.3974 and previous support) and possibly 1.3650, otherwise, further consolidation would take place.

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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.6065

Cable's intra-day cross-inspired rise to 1.6100 suggests caution on our short position entered at 1.6065 and this resistance needs to hold to retain bearishness for another decline, below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.6030) would suggest top is possibly formed and bring another fall towards 1.5952.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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