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| Action Insight Market Overview | Markets Snapshot |
Daily Report: Countdown to FOMC QE2, Markets SteadyMarkets are generally steady today as traders await FOMC rate decision. Fed is widely expected to announce QE2 today. The market has speculated a range of options that the Fed has considered on the implementation of the asset-buying program. For example, the Fed may start the program by announcing $500B, spanning 6 months, next week. It may also announce a contingency plan - purchasing $100B per month until the next FOMC meeting and indicating the plan will continue until economic developments show signs of improvements. Of course, the Fed may also disappoint the market by making no commitment or announce a small amount of purchases. While we believe the last option would be the least likely, the ultimate size of the first 2 options would be around $1-2 trillion. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 80.39; (P) 80.68; (R1) 80.90; More. Intraday bias in USD/JPY remains neutral for the moment as sideway consolidations continue. But after all, outlook remains bearish with 81.97 resistance intact and current down trend is expected to continue further. Below 80.29 will target 79.75 low next. On the upside, as noted before, break of 81.97 resistance is needed to confirm bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish. |
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| Special Reports |
Fed to Spark QE2, What Options Does it Have?The Fed is almost certain to announce QE2 at the November FOMC meeting. Indeed, comments from Fed officials in recent weeks have indicated further accommodations are required to bring inflation and employment back to levels the FOMC sees as consistent with its dual mandate. We expect policymakers are inclined to a more gradual approach of monetary easing, i.e. to purchase long-term Treasury securities of around $100B per month, without upper limit on the total amount and being reviewed on every FOMC meeting. At the same time, the Fed may modify the language used in the accompanying statement as Chairman Ben Bernanke said at the Boston Fed conference that he would examine ways to achieve greater easing through a new communication strategy. |
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| Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Hold short entered at 0.9810Although the greenback has rebounded after yesterday's selloff to 0.9758, reckon upside would be limited to 0.9840 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.9972 to 0.9758 and current level of the Kijun-Sen) and bring another decline. Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Buy at 1.3915Despite yesterday's rally to 1.4058, as the single currency has retreated from there, suggesting consolidation would take place and mild downside bias is seen for retracement to the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3986) and possibly 1.3960/65 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3864 to 1.4058), however, renewed buying interest should emerge above the Ichimoku cloud bottom (now at 1.3909) and bring another rise later. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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