Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 11-24-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Retreats as Risks Recover, But Euro Remains Soft

Dollar retreats mildly today as risk sentiments continue to stabilize. Nevertheless, risk appetite is somewhat still limited after generally weak data from US. Durable goods orders dropped sharply by -3.3% in October while ex-transport orders contracted -2.7%. New home sale dropped to 283k in OCtober while hour price index tumbled by -0.7% in October. Personal income and spending were mixed by rising 0.5% and 0.4% respectively in October. Core inflation remains subdued by moderating to 0.9% yoy. Though, initial jobless claims posted impressive improvements to 407k.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3539; (P) 1.3663 (R1) 1.3749; More.

EUR/USD dives to as low as 1.3284 today, just inches above mentioned target of 1.3269/70 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1.2643 to 1.4281 at 1.3269 and 61.8% projection of 1.4281 to 1.3447 from 1.3785 at 1.3270). Intraday bias remains on the downside for the moment and decisive break of 1.3269/70 will target 100% projection at 1.2951 next. On the upside, above 1.3236 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring recovery. But risk will remain on the downside as long as 1.3785 resistance holds.

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Portugal May Be The Next To Seek EU Bailout, Following Greece And Ireland

Ireland's request for funding from EU/ECB/IMF fails to ease fear of contagion to peripheral European economies. Portugal is regarded by bond market investors and economists as the next country to be bailed out, after Greece and Ireland. Despite José Sócrates', Portuguese prime minister's, pledge that 'Portugal doesn't need anyone's help and will solve its own problems' and the European Commission's affirmation that 'there are no analogies to be made. As the Irish case is very specific', Portuguese CDS continued to surge. Yield spreads between Portuguese bonds and German bunds also widened. While Portugal does not have immediate need for money and it fiscal status is better than many of its neighbors, a bailout depends highly on the risks of contagion. In our opinion, the problem in Portugal is different from Ireland. The root problem is the lack of growth and structural weakness for the former while that for the latter is the outsized banking sector.

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Fed Remains Concerned About Unemployment And Low Inflation

The FOMC minutes for the November meeting provided few surprises. Although the committee revised growth forecasts lower and unemployment rates higher, these were predictable as economic conditions deteriorated sharply since June's projections. Policymakers were generally worried about the improvement in job market and sluggishness in inflation. Yet these comments were known through various public speeches by Fed officials since the November meeting.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
09:00 EUR German IFO - Business Climate Nov 109.3 107.5 107.6 107.7
09:00 EUR German IFO - Current Assessment Nov 112.3 110.4 110.2
09:00 EUR German IFO - Expectations Nov 106.3 104.7 105.1 105.2
09:30 GBP GDP Q/Q Q3 P 0.80% 0.80% 0.80%
09:30 GBP GDP Y/Y Q3 P 2.80% 2.60% 2.80%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Sep -0.10% 0.60% 0.30% 0.70%
10:00 EUR Eurozone Industrial New Orders M/M Sep -3.80% -2.70% 5.30% 5.10%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Oct -3.30% 0.00% 3.50% 5.00%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Oct -2.70% 0.70% -0.40%
13:30 USD Personal Income Oct 0.50% 0.40% -0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Oct 0.40% 0.50% 0.20% 0.30%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Oct 0% 0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Oct 0.90% 1.00% 1.20%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Oct 1.30% 1.30% 1.40%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claim 407K 434K 439K
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Nov F 71.60% 69.3 69.3
15:00 USD House Price Index M/M Sep -0.70% -0.10% 0.40%
15:00 USD New Home Sales Oct 283K 315K 307K
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.9M -7.3M
17:00 USD Natural Gas Storage -6B 3B
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Wrap-up: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3500

Euro's intra-day strong rebound from 1.3284 suggests a temporary low has been formed and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for test of 1.3417-19 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3633 to 1.3284 and intra-day resistance), break there would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.3475/80 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3786 to 1.3284), however, reckon 1.3535 (50% Fibonacci retracement) would hold and bring another decline

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Trade Idea Wrap-up: USD/JPY – Hold short entered at 83.20

Despite intra-day rebound to 83.50, as the greenback has retreated after meeting resistance at the Ichimoku cloud bottom, retaining our near term bearishness and further consolidation is seen with downside bias for another retreat. A drop below 82.94 minor support would add credence to our view that top has possibly been formed at 83.85 and bring test of support at 82.78

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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