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Daily Report: Swiss France Remains Strong on Safe Haven Flow, Dollar Pares Some LossSwiss Franc continues to be the strongest currency this month, along with some noticeable strength in the Japanese yen in thin trading. Safe haven flows continued from Euro and Sterling to Swissy after after ECB said it failed to fully sterilize the excessive liquidity provided to the market since May. So as to fight against sovereign crisis, the ECB implemented a Securities Market Program allowing the central bank to buy government bonds. While the ECB pledged the purchases would be sterilized via deposits, recent data showed that it only absorbed from money markets 60.78B euro out of the 73.5B euro of liquidity it provided. EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF, as well as USD/CHF continue to trade near to record lows made recently. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/CHF Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 0.9435; (P) 0.9520; (R1) 0.9607; More. USD/CHF recovers mildly after making record low at 0.9434. But after all, near term outlook remains bearish with 0.9663 resistance intact. Current fall from 1.0065 is treated as part of the larger down trend and should target 100% projection of 1.2296 to 0.9916 from 1.1729 at 0.9349 next. On the upside, though, break of 0.9663 resistance will indicate that a short term bottom is formed with bullish convergence condition in 4 hours MACD and will bring stronger rebound. |
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| Special Report |
2011 Currency and Monetary Policy Outlook: US - A Shift from Monetary to Fiscal StimulusThemes dominated the global FX markets this year will remain in focus in 2011. For much of the time, US economic recovery and Fed's addition of QE were affecting USD's movement. QE2 will expire in June 2011 and therefore the market will find no clues on what's next in coming few months. In our opinion, extension of Bush-era rate cuts would boost US economic growth in coming 2 years. Together with signs of recovery over the past few months, the Fed will not need to extend unconventional measures as QE2 expires. Yet, the Fed will still keep the policy rate unchanged at 0-0.25% and maintain a dovish tone throughout the year. Stronger economic growth and an end to QE should be supportive for US dollar. In the Eurozone, sovereign crisis in peripheral economies may have further to run. We expect the euro will decline against the dollar in 1H11 before recovery seen thereafter. Break-up of the 16-nation region has been a hot topic this year. Indeed, we believe such worry is overdone. However, member countries will have a tough year in 2011. |
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Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, next Ichimoku & Candlestick Trade Idea, and Elliott Wave Trade Ideas update will resume on 3 Jan 2011. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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