Wednesday, December 1, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 12-1-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Dollar Retreats as Markets Await Key US Data

Dollar retreats mildly in steady markets today. Traders are waiting on sidelines ahead of a flush of key economic data from US for the rest of the week, which will start of with ISM manufacturing index, ADP employment as well as Fed's Beige Book today. Sell off in stocks slowed as DOW managed to close above 11000 level despite another attempt to break through. The sharp fall in US treasury yield overnight is also limit dollar's strength and sent USD/JPY lower from this week's high of 84.39. Sentiments are also stabilized by solid PMI manufacturing data from China. Nevertheless, considering the event risks in the latter part of the week, including ECB meeting and Non-Farm Payroll, volatility would likely continue.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 129.28; (P) 130.26; (R1) 131.20; More

Intraday bias in GBP/JPY remains on the downside for the moment and current decline from 134.19 should target 100% projection of 134.19 to 130.83 from 132.08 at 128.7 first. Break will bring retest of 126.42 low. On the upside, above 130.83 minor resistance will turn bias neutral. But another fall will remain in favor as long as 132.08 resistance holds. However, break of 132.08 will indicate that fall from 134.19 is finished and flip bias back to the upside for retesting this high.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
0:30 AUD GDP Q/Q Q3 0.20% 0.50% 1.20%
0:30 AUD GDP Y/Y Q3 2.70% 3.40% 3.30%
7:00 GBP Nationwide House Prices M/M Nov -0.30% -0.40% -0.70%
8:30 CHF SVME-PMIs Nov 59.5 59.2
8:55 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Nov F 58.9 58.9
9:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Nov F 55.5 55.5
9:30 GBP PMI Manufacturing Nov 54.7 54.9
12:30 USD Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y Nov -- -31.80%
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change Nov 65K 43K
13:30 USD Non-Farm Productivity Q3 F 2.30% 1.90%
13:30 USD Unit Labor Costs Q3 F -0.20% -0.10%
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing Nov 56.5 56.9
15:00 USD ISM Prices Paid Nov 71 71
15:00 USD Construction Spending M/M Oct -0.40% 0.50%
15:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -0.8M 1.0M
19:00 USD Fed's Beige Book -- --
Candlesticks and Ichimoku Intraday Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5650

Despite yesterday's fall to 1.5485, the subsequent rebound from there suggests a minor low has been formed and consolidation would be seen with mild upside bias for retracement towards 1.5646-47 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud top and this week's high) before renewed selling interest emerges, bring another decline.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3150

As the single currency has recovered after holding above yesterday's low at 1.2969, retaining our view that minor consolidation would take place and above the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.3052) would bring retracement towards 1.3148-51 (current level of the Ichimoku cloud bottom and yesterday's high) but renewed selling interest should emerge there, bring another decline.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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