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Daily Report: Dollar Rebounds as Boosted by Strong Rise in Treasury YieldsDollar rebounds strongly following significant jump in US treasury yield overnight in response to Obama's tax cut extension. Firstly, markets see the tax extension will ease burden on Fed's QE program to stimulate economy an help US grow 0.5 to 1.0 percent points. Secondly, the tax cuts would swell the already huge budget deficit and prompts demand for higher premium for holding US debts. Thirdly, the three year note auction yesterday drew a yield of 0.862%, higher than expectation of 0.841% and much higher than last month's auction of 0.575%. Bid-to-cover ratio was at 2.91, lowest level since February. Yield on 30 year bonds jumped through recent high and closed strongly at 4.426%. While yield on 10 year notes extended it's rise to close strongly at 3.165%. While dollar's correction with yields decreased mildly, the significant jump in yields yesterday helped push USD/JPY sharply higher from intraday low of 82.33 to above 84 in Asian today. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
USD/JPY Daily OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 82.67; (P) 83.16; (R1) 83.99; More. USD/JPY's strong rebound suggests that fall from 84.39 is finished at 82.33 after drawing support from 50% retracement of 80.29 to 84.39. The strength of the rebound argues that rise from 80.29 is possibly not finished yet. Intraday bias is now cautiously on the upside for 84.39 and bring will confirm rise resumption towards 85.92 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 94.97 to 80.29 at 85.89). On the downside, below 83.43 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral again. Also, further break of 82.33 will revive the case that rebound from 80.29 is completed and will bring deeper fall towards 80 psychological level again. |
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Trade Idea: USD/CHF – Buy at 0.9840First of all, please accept our apology for not being able to hold on to our long position entered at 0.9770 yesterday, the greenback found decent demand at 0.9756 and rallied in line with our expectation, current breach of 0.9874-88 resistance area signals the fall from 1.0067 has possibly ended at 0.9726 on Monday and consolidation with upside bias remains for test of resistance at 0.9951 Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Sell at 1.3280Despite yesterday's rise to 1.3401, the subsequent sharp retreat adds credence to our view that further choppy consolidation below 1.3452 would take place and current breach of 1.3246 suggests at least a stronger retracement of the rise from 1.2969 would bring weakness to 1.3180/85 Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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