Thursday, December 23, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-23-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Dollar Mixed after Mildly Negative Data

Dollar remains mixed after mildly negative data from US. Headline durables dropped more than expected by -1.3% in November but ex-transport orders beat expectation and rose 2.4%. Personal income was inline with consensus and rose 0.3% in November while spending rose 0.4%, below expectation of 0.5%. Inflation readings continued to moderate with PCE core down to 0.8% yoy while headline PCE dropped to 1.0% yoy, both below analysts forecasts. New home sale rose from downwardly revised 275k to 290k in November, below consensus of 300k. Dollar is firm against European majors in early US session. But there is a lack of strength or recovery against yen and Aussie.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3056; (P) 1.3119 (R1) 1.3160; More.

EUR/USD's fall from 1.3496 resumes after brief consolidations. Intraday bias is back on the downside for 1.2969 support first. Break there will confirm resumption of whole decline from 1.4281 and target 1.2643 support next. On the upside, break of 1.3358 will indicate that fall from 1.3496 is possibly over and rebound from 1.2969 might be resuming for another high above 1.3496.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:45 NZD GDP Q/Q Q3 -0.20% 0.10% 0.20% 0.10%
21:45 NZD GDP Y/Y Q3 1.50% 1.80% 1.90% 1.80%
09:30 GBP Index of Services 3M/3M Oct 0.60% 0.70% 0.60%
13:30 CAD GDP M/M Oct 0.20% 0.30% -0.10%
13:30 USD Durable Goods Orders Nov -1.30% -0.60% -3.30% -3.10%
13:30 USD Durables Ex Transportation Nov 2.40% 1.70% -2.70% -1.90%
13:30 USD Personal Income Nov 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.40%
13:30 USD Personal Spending Nov 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.70%
13:30 USD PCE Core M/M Nov 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
13:30 USD PCE Core Y/Y Nov 0.80% 0.90% 0.90% 0.80%
13:30 USD PCE Deflator Y/Y Nov 1.00% 1.10% 1.30% 1.20%
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 420K 420K 420K
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Dec F 74.50% 74.5 74.2
15:00 USD New Home Sales Nov 290K 300K 283K
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -184B -170B -164B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: EUR/GBP – Sell at 0.8500

Despite intra-day marginal rise to 0.8526 (yesterday's high was 0.8523), as the single currency has retreated sharply from there, suggesting recovery from this week's low at 0.8446 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias is seen. A break of this support would suggest the c leg has ended at 0.8553 and bring weakness to 0.8400/10, below there would signal the correction from 0.8334 has ended and further fall to 0.8349/50, then retest of 0.8334 would follow.

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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