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Mid-Day Report: Sterling Lower after BoE Bean Comments, Dollar Turning SoftSterling is noticeably weaker today after BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean said that it takes some time before the economy is restored and warned that "intensification of the sovereign debt problems in the euro area could administer a blow to the recovery here." On the other hand, Rightmove reported that asking prices for homes in England and Wales fell -3.0% in the past month and said that economic uncertainty and low mortgage approvals could trigger bigger decline in 2011. BoE note "evidence of a substantial and persistent tightening in credit supply conditions from mid-2007" in the quarterly bulletin released today and warned that weak lending is likely to dampen recovery in UK. Sterling is seen broadly lower and in particular, the sharp recovery in EUR/GBP suggests further upside in the cross ahead in near term. |
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| Featured Technical Report | |
EUR/USD Mid-Day OutlookDaily Pivots: (S1) 1.3175; (P) 1.3229 (R1) 1.3278; More. EUR/USD recovers mildly today and the break of 1.3281 minor resistance, with 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, argues that choppy retreat from 1.3437 might be finished at 1.3164 already. Intraday bias is cautiously on the upside for the moment for a test on 1.3437/3447 resistance zone. As noted before, break there will confirm that fall from 1.4281 has completed with three waves down to 1.2969, just missing 100% projection of 1.4281 to 1.3447 from 1.3785 at 1.2951. EUR/USD should then target 1.3785 and then 1.4281 high. On the downside, below 1.3164 will dampens this view and bring deeper retreat. Nevertheless, we won't turn bearish in EUR/USD as long as 1.2969 support holds. |
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FOMC Meeting To Be A Quiet Event. Tax Cuts Diminish QE3 PossibilityThe FOMC meeting this week will be a quiet one as policymakers will leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at 0-0.25%, reiterating that policy rate will stay 'exceptionally low' for an 'extended period'. After the Fed announced in November to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasurysecurities by the end of 2Q11, a series of events happened and may change the Fed's monetary policy outlook. The most important one was President Obama's agreement on tax cuts which, if successful in boosting economic recovery, may reduce the need of further QE. |
| Economic Indicators Update |
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Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5790Although cable has retreated after intra-day brief bounce to 1.5767, break of support at 1.5711 is needed to add credence to our view that top has been formed at 1.5863 and bring retracement of recent rise to 1.5690, then test of previous support at 1.5668. Trade Idea: AUD/USD – Sell at 0.9905Aussie's near term consolidation is expected to continue and as long as resistance at 0.9966 (last week's high) holds, mild downside bias remains for another retreat, a break of support at 0.9752 would signal the rebound from 0.9536 (A leg bottom of the major correction) has ended and bring weakness to 0.9700 and later towards 0.9620/30. Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT): | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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