Thursday, December 9, 2010

Action Insight Daily Report 12-10-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Daily Report: Markets Staying in Range, Near Term Levels in EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY Still Holding

Markets are staying in established range and lack clear direction for the moment. We'd like to note again that dollar's recovery this week looks corrective and the greenback is vulnerable to another fall. Nevertheless, there isn't enough determination in the markets to push EUR/USD and GBP/USD through near term resistance of 1.3447 and 1.5838 yet and that's holding us from turning totally near term bearish in dollar. Dollar is relatively much stronger against the Japanese yen but again, there isn't any decisive buying to push USD/JPY through 84.39 resistance. And with risk of 10-year and 30-year bond auctions passed, treasury yield might have found a near term top already and that would possibly limit USD/JPY's strength.

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Featured Technical Report

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 131.57; (P) 132.23; (R1) 132.74; More

GBP/JPY's rebound lost team and formed a temporary top at 132.98. Some sideway trading might be seen first. But we'd still favor another rise with 131.32 intact. Above 132.98 will target a test on 134.19 resistance first and break will confirm that whole rebound from 126.42 has resumed for 135.03 resistance first. On the downside, below 131.32 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside and turn focus back to 129.32 support instead.

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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
23:50 JPY BSI Large Manufacturing Q/Q Q4 -8 14.3 13.3
23:50 JPY Domestic CGPI Y/Y Nov 0.90% 1.00% 0.90% 0.80%
5:00 JPY Consumer Confidence Households Nov 40.4 42.3 40.9
9:30 GBP PPI Input M/M Nov 0.50% 2.10%
9:30 GBP PPI Input Y/Y Nov 8.30% 8.00%
9:30 GBP PPI Output M/M Nov 0.30% 0.60%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Y/Y Nov 4.00% 4.00%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Core M/M Nov 0.30% 0.40%
9:30 GBP PPI Output Core Y/Y Nov 3.50% 3.30%
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade (CAD) Oct -2.0B -2.5B
13:30 USD Trade Balance Oct -$43.8B -$44.0B
13:30 USD Import Price Index M/M Nov 0.80% 0.90%
14:55 USD U. of Michigan Confidence Dec P 72 71.6
19:00 USD Monthly Budget Statement Nov -$130.0B -$120.3B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea: GBP/USD – Hold short entered at 1.5805

Despite yesterday's fall to 1.5711 (just missed our downside target at 1.5705 within 10 points), as the British pound has rebounded from there, suggesting caution on our short position entered at 1.5805 yesterday and price needs to hold below 1.5800 to retain bearishness for another retreat, below intra-day support at 1.5748 would bring test of said support, then towards 1.5668.

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Trade Idea: EUR/USD – Hold short entered at 1.3260

Although the single currency has rebounded after falling to 1.3164 yesterday, as  long as the Ichimoku cloud top (now at 1.3290) holds, bearishness remains for the fall from 1.3452 top to resume to 1.3150/54 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2969 to 1.3452) and possibly towards 1.3100. Looking ahead, only break of 1.3060 support would confirm the rise from 1.2969 has ended at 1.3452

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights


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