Thursday, December 16, 2010

Action Insight Mid-Day Report 12-16-10

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Action Insight Market Overview Markets Snapshot

Mid-Day Report: Euro Soft after Weak Spain Bond Sales, SNB on Hold, Dollar Steady

Euro remains soft as Spain's final bond sales this year missed target. The country sold EUR 1.78b of 10-year bonds and EUR 0.62b of 15- year bonds today. The total of EUR 2.4b missed Treasury's maximum target of EUR 3b. Average yields were also higher than previous sales. The disappointment was driven by Moody's warning it would downgrade Spain's Aa1 credit rating. Meanwhile, investors worried that EU leaders would fail to agree on effective measures to stem contagion in the Summit in Brussels this week. Meanwhile, Eurozone PMI manufacturing improved to 56.8 in November but PMI services deteriorated to 53.7. CPI was finalized at 0.1% mom, 1.9% yoy in November with core CPI up 1.1% yoy.

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Featured Technical Report

EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3154; (P) 1.3267 (R1) 1.3327; More.

At this moment, EUR/USD is still holding above 1.3164 support and thus, we're staying neutral. Note that break of 1.3164 will confirm that recovery from 1.2969 has completed at 1.3496 already. Such development will also indicate that fall from 1.4281 is not over. In such case, intraday bias will be flipped back to the downside for 1.2969 and below. Nevertheless, before breaking 1.3164, rebound from 1.2969 could still extend further and above 1.3496 will target 1.3785 resistance and above.

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SNB Left Target Rate Unchanged To Curb Franc Appreciation

As expected the SNB left the 3-month LIBOR range at 0-0.75% as appreciation in Swiss franc has weakened the country's export-led economic growth. Meanwhile, the central bank cut its inflation outlook for 2012 and 1H13 but raised the 2011 forecast modestly. Growth estimates stayed unchanged at +2.5% and +1.5% for 2010 and 2011 respectively.

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Economic Indicators Update


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GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
21:30 NZD Business NZ Manufacturing Index Nov 52.7 -- 49.7 50
00:30 AUD RBA Quarterly Bulletin -- --
02:00 NZD NBNZ Business Confidence Dec 29.5 -- 33.2
08:15 CHF Industrial Production Q/Q Q3 1.80% 0.90% 5.70% 5.80%
08:15 CHF Industrial Production Y/Y Q3 5.80% 5.00% 7.80%
08:30 CHF SNB Rate Decision 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
08:30 EUR German PMI Manufacturing Nov P 58.3 58.2 58.1
08:30 EUR German PMI Services Nov P 60.9 59.1 59.2
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Manufacturing Nov P 56.8 55.3 55.3
09:00 EUR Eurozone PMI Services Nov P 53.7 55.3 55.4
09:30 GBP Retail Sales M/M Nov 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% 0.70%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales Y/Y Nov 1.80% 1.40% 1.20% 1.70%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M Nov 0.30% 0.30% 0.50% 0.50%
09:30 GBP Retail Sales with Auto Fuel Y/Y Nov 1.10% 0.70% -0.10% 0.30%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI M/M Nov F 0.10% 0.10% 0.40%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI Y/Y Nov F 1.90% 1.90% 1.90%
10:00 EUR Eurozone CPI - Core Y/Y Nov 1.10% 1.10% 1.10%
13:30 USD Housing Starts Nov 555K 550K 519K
13:30 USD Building Permits Nov 530K 558K 552K
13:30 USD Current Account Balance Q3 -127.2B -$126.0B -$123.3B
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims 420K 425K 421K
13:30 CAD International Securities Transactions (CAD) Oct 9.51B -- 12.253B
15:00 USD Philly Fed Survey Dec 14.1 22.5
15:30 USD Natural Gas Storage -166B -89B
Forex Trade Ideas

Trade Idea Update: GBP/USD – Sell at 1.5675

As the British pound has edged higher in line with our expectation in our previous update, retaining our view that a minor low has been formed at 1.5531 yesterday and upside risk remains for retracement to 1.5650 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5769 to 1.5531), however, upside should be limited to 1.5676-78 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5911 to 1.5531 and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.5769-1.5531), bring another decline later.

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Trade Idea: USD/CAD – Sell at 1.0100

Despite yesterday's brief drop below 1.0002, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent bounce from 1.0001 suggest consolidation would take place, however, upside should be limited to this week's high of 1.0112 and bring another decline. A sustained breach of psychological support at 1.0000 would bring test of previous support at 0.9977 but only below there would confirm resumption of downtrend in wave (iii) for retest of previous chart point at 0.9931

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Candlesticks Intraday Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
1st Update: 0630 - 0700; 2nd Update: 0930 - 1000; 3rd Update: 1230 - 1300; 4th Update: 1500 - 1530
Pairs Covered: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF

Elliott Wave Daily Trade Ideas Update Schedule (GMT):
AUD/USD, EUR/JPY: 0800 - 0830; EUR/GBP, USD/CAD: 1330 - 1400

Suggested Readings

Fundamental Highlights

Technical Highlights

 


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